How important is Dean’s success in Wisconsin?

Howard Dean had a big weekend, highlighted by winning a largely meaningless “straw poll” at the Wisconsin state party annual convention in Milwaukee. It’s meaningless because it wasn’t a legitimate, scientific poll of party activists — participants had to pay $20 just to register their “vote.” The straw poll wasn’t even officially sanctioned by the party and each of the campaigns said in advance that the results would have little bearing on the overall race. It was, in other words, just for fun.

That being said, Dean was the overwhelming favorite of the mostly-liberal activists who attended the event. Dean was favored to win the straw poll before his Saturday night speech, but he sealed the deal with a rabblerousing speech that had attendees on their feet.

I can’t seem to find a video copy of the speech online, which is a shame because I think everyone interested in the race should see this one. It dawned on me after watching Dean’s remarks exactly why he is doing as well as he is. I don’t know why this hadn’t occurred to me before.

For months, I saw Dean’s appeal as fairly easy to explain. He was presenting himself as an unapologetic liberal, proud of the Democratic Party and its values. Dean was the only “credible” candidate to really hammer away at Bush for his failures, and Dem activists, who’ve been searching for someone to be aggressive, naturally gravitated to the Dean campaign. He was the straight-shooting liberal telling progressive primary voters that they have nothing to be ashamed of. It’s an effective message and Dean is an excellent messenger.

But Saturday, I noticed something new. Dean is really very angry. He’s angry about Bush, the GOP agenda, the rightward shift in American politics, the media, and the passivity of Dems in Congress. When his speech hit its crescendo in Milwaukee, he was practically screaming with his fist in the air and red in his face about how desperately he “wants his country back.” One got the impression that if Bush were in the room, Dean would have thrown the podium at him.

His remarks generated a genuine frenzy in the crowd, just as other crowds have done for months. The reason is simple: Democrats are angry, too, and angry voters look to angry candidates.

But I keep wondering whether this can last. Dean has tapped into the one emotion Dem diehards feel about the Bush administration and it may even be enough to win the nomination. But how big is the “angry constituency” nationwide? For the last half-century, candidates are successful when they appeal to a sense of positive optimism among the electorate, regardless of party. Barry Goldwater comes to mind as the angriest candidate in recent memory. He won six states.

I remain skeptical about the long-term appeal of a candidate whose central appeal is being pissed off.