There’s Bush’s rhetoric…
“General Myers, Vice President and Condi and I had a long-ranging discussion with our key members of the defense team about a variety of subjects. We talked about Iraq, the way forward in Iraq, the way to help the Iraqis get to elections. We’re making progress on the ground.” (August 23, 2004)
…and there’s Iraq’s reality.
A classified National Intelligence Estimate prepared for President Bush in late July spells out a dark assessment of prospects for Iraq, government officials said Wednesday.
The estimate outlines three possibilities for Iraq through the end of 2005, with the worst case being developments that could lead to civil war, the officials said. The most favorable outcome described is an Iraq whose stability would remain tenuous in political, economic and security terms.
“There’s a significant amount of pessimism,” said one government official who has read the document, which runs about 50 pages.
Keep in mind, the NIE was written and approved by the interim director of the CIA (in whom Bush has expressed confidence), so it’s difficult for the White House to dismiss the document or its conclusions as meaningless speculation. Of course, administration officials tried anyway.
[Sean McCormack, a spokesman for the National Security Council] said that in describing “different possible scenarios for Iraq’s political and economic future over the course of 18 months,” the document had made clear that “Iraq’s future will be determined by a number of different factors, include the nation’s economic progress, the effectiveness of Iraq’s political structure, and security and stability.”
He added: “In the past, including before the war to liberate Iraq, there were many different scenarios that were possible, including the outbreak of civil war. It hasn’t happened. The Iraqi people continue to defy the predictions of pundits and others.”
Nice try, Sean. First, we’re not just talking about “predictions of pundits”; we’re talking about the conclusions drawn by the director of the CIA. Second, the NIE didn’t just outline “possible scenarios”; it said, at best, Iraq will be violent and unstable for years to come.
No wonder even Republican lawmakers are dropping the pretense of politeness when describing the situation on the ground.
Senate Republicans and Democrats on Wednesday denounced the Bush administration’s slow progress in rebuilding Iraq, saying the risks of failure are great if it doesn’t act with greater urgency.
“It’s beyond pitiful, it’s beyond embarrassing, it’s now in the zone of dangerous,” said Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.).
At some point, the White House is really going to have to be straight with the public about Iraq. I suspect it’ll happen sometime around November 3rd.