Yep, it’s that time again. It’s my weekly round-up of statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days, a little something I call “Poll Day.” This week breaks last week’s record for most states ever: 38. Also this week, we have the ninth installment of the Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal survey. As always, because of concerns I have over its methodology, I’ve kept the data separate from the other polls.
It’s hard to know what to make of this week’s numbers. There are some red states that were competitive but are now far less so (Arizona, Missouri), red states that continue to be surprisingly close (Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia), competitive blue states where Kerry is pulling away (Michigan, Washington), and competitive blue states that keep slipping further away (Wisconsin).
This week’s most important trend is its most frustrating. Going over the data, you could look at interesting poll results, or you could look for consistency, but you couldn’t have both. Several states offer results that wildly contradicts other polls from the same state taken at the same time. In Florida, one poll says Kerry’s up, the other says Bush is up. Same for Maine. One shows Colorado tied, the other shows Bush with a big lead. In New Hampshire, Kerry is up by more than the margin of error and Bush is up by the same margin. In New Mexico, Bush is up by 4 or Kerry is up by 5. In Ohio, Bush’s lead is either 2 or 11. In Wisconsin, it’s either exactly tied or Bush is up by 14. All in the same week.
It’s a telling reminder: everything is still in flux. There are 39 days to go — and in a presidential race, that’s a very long time.
Alabama (9 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Bush 54, Kerry 40, Nader 1
Arizona (10 electoral votes)
Mason-Dixon — Bush 50, Kerry 39
American Research Group — Bush 49, Kerry 43
Comment: This one’s looking worse, which is extremely disappointing. Kerry cancelled a scheduled ad buy in Arizona this week.
Arkansas (6 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Bush 48, Kerry 45, Nader 2
Comment: No southern state (other than Florida, which doesn’t really count as “the South”) has been more consistently close this year than Arkansas.
California (55 electoral votes)
LA Times — Kerry 55, Bush 40
Colorado (9 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 46, Kerry 45
Ciruli Associates — Bush 51, Kerry 39
Comment: The Ciruli results have all the makings of an outlier. All the recent data shows a narrow-thin lead for Bush.
Connecticut (7 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 54, Bush 39, Nader 1
Comment: I still find it amusing that this is, technically, Bush’s original home state.
Deleware (3 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 50, Bush 41, Nader 2
District of Columbia (3 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 78, Bush 11, Nader 6
Comment: I recently said Utah was the least competitive state. What I didn’t mention is that DC is even more obvious. Now if it only had more than 3 electoral votes…
Florida (27 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 46, Bush 45, Nader 2
Quinnipiac — Bush 49, Kerry 41, Nader 5
Gallup — Bush 49, Kery 46, Nader 2
Georgia (15 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Bush 53, Kerry 42
Illinois (21 electoral votes)
Post-Dispatch — Kerry 54, Bush 39
American Research Group — Kerry 49, Bush 43, Nader 2
Indiana (11 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Bush 54, Kerry 39
Iowa (7 electoral votes)
Mason Dixon — Bush 48, Kerry 42, Nader 2
Gallup — Bush 50, Kerry 44
American Research Group — Bush 48, Kerry 46, Nader 1
Research 2000 — Bush 47, Kerry 45
Survey USA — Iowa: Bush 50, Kerry 46
Fox News — Iowa: Bush 48, Kerry 45
Comment: Iowa has to start turning around soon.
Kansas (6 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Bush 57, Kerry 35, Nader 2
Louisiana (9 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Bush 50, Kerry 42, Nader 1
Maine (4 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 47, Kerry 46
Critical Insights — Kerry 45, Bush 42
Comment: Remember, Maine can, and very may will, split their four electoral votes. Two goes to the candidate wins the state, but one each goes to the winner of the respective congressional districts. Maine has never split its votes before, but it very well may this year. Something to look out for.
Maryland (10 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Kerry 48, Bush 48
Comment: I simply don’t believe this; it doesn’t make any sense. All Maryland polling since, say, 1990, has shown a huge Dem lead. This has to be false.
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
EPIC/MRA — Kerry 48, Bush 44, Nader 2
Mason Dixon — Kerry 47, Bush 41, Nader 2
American Research Group — Kerry 48, Bush 40, Nader 1
Survey USA — Kerry 52, Bush 42
Fox News — Kerry 46, Bush 44
Comment: Michigan is no longer really considered competitive among the insiders. America Coming Together had a huge staff there — and they all closed up shop this week to go to more competitive states. It’s a very good sign.
Mississippi (6 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Bush 51, Kerry 42, Nader 1
Missouri (11 electoral votes)
Post-Dispatch — Bush 49, Kerry 42
Mason-Dixon — Bush 48, Kerry 41, Nader 1
American Research Group — Bush 50, Kerry 44
Comment: It’s a shame this one has slipped away, too. Kerry had an ad buy scheduled, but he cancelled it this week. Bad sign.
Nevada (5 electoral votes)
Mason-Dixon — Bush 50, Kerry 45
American Research Group — Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 1
Gallup — Bush 52, Kerry 43
Comment: Forget Gallup (again); this one’s going down to the wire.
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
Mason-Dixon — Bush 49, Kerry 40, Nader 3
Rasmussen — Kerry 51, Bush 45
American Research Group — Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 1
Comment: Kerry’s up, Bush’s up, or it’s about tied. Yeah, that’s helpful.
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
Quinnipiac — Kerry 49, Bush 48
American Research Group — Kerry 50, Bush 42, Nader 1
New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
Mason Dixon — Bush 47, Kerry 43, Nader 2
American Research Group — Kerry 49, Bush 44, Nader 1
New York (31 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Kerry 55, Bush 39
American Research Group — Kerry 52, Bush 40, Nader 1
North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Bush 49, Kerry 44
Comment: You know, NC continues to keep things awfully close.
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
Mason-Dixon — Bush 49, Kerry 40, Nader 2
Rasmussen — Bush 48, Kerry 44
University of Cincinnati — Bush 54, Kerry 43, Nader 2
American Research Group — Bush 48, Kerry 46, Nader 1
Fox News — Bush 48, Kerry 45
Oklahoma (7 electoral votes)
Wilson — Bush 64, Kerry 24
American Research Group — Bush 55, Kerry 38
Survey USA — Bush 64, Kerry 33
Oregon (7 electoral votes)
Mason Dixon — Bush 47, Kerry 43, Nader 1
Research 2000 — Kerry 51, Bush 44
Survey USA — Bush 48, Kerry 47
Comment: Despite some of this data, I’ve heard that Bush isn’t planning to put much into Oregon from here on out. I guess BC04 internal polling shows something different than Mason Dixon.
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
Mason Dixon — Kerry 45, Bush 44, Nader 1
American Research Group — Kerry 47, Bush 46, Nader 1
Fox News — Kerry 50, Bush 45
Comment: At this point, I’m just glad Kerry’s leading at all.
Rhode Island (4 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Kerry 55, Bush 37
South Carolina (8 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Bush 52, Kerry 40, Nader 1
Survey USA — Bush 58, Kerry 38
Tennessee (11 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Bush 50, Kerry 43, Nader 1
Survey USA — Bush 55, Kerry 41
Texas (34 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Bush 58, Kerry 36, Nader 1
Survey USA — Bush 58, Kerry 37
Virginia (13 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Bush 49, Kerry 43
Washington (11 electoral votes)
The Columbian — Kerry 51, Bush 42
Ipsos-Public — Kerry 49, Bush 41
Survey USA — Kerry 51, Bush 46
Comment: Bush has officially given up on Washington. I think we can stop calling it a “battleground” now.
West Virginia (5 electoral votes)
Mason-Dixon — Bush 45, Kerry 44
Rasmussen — Bush 50, Kerry 44
American Research Group — Bush 46, Kerry 46, Nader 2
Gallup — Bush 51, Kerry 45
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Mason Dixon — Bush 46, Kerry 44, Nader 1
American Research Group — Bush 46, Kerry 46, Nader 2
ABC News — Bush 53, Kerry 43, Nader 1
Badger Poll — Bush 52, Kerry 38
Comment: The biggest disappointment of the campaign season. I really don’t know how this happened, or whether it’ll last, but the problems in Wisconsin seemed to start right after the Swiftboat lies hit the state’s airwaves.
And finally there’s the Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal poll of 16 contested “battleground” states released earlier this week. As I mentioned, I have some concerns about its methodology, specifically, the fact that it relies on email invitations for participation.
I’ve gotten a couple of questions about this that I’d like to answer. First, many note that Zogby’s national results tend to be pretty good. That’s true, but that’s not what we’re dealing with here. This is a special Zogby “Interactive” poll for the WSJ, which isn’t exactly the same thing as the national Zogby results you’re probably used to seeing.
Also, many have noted that I should put more stock into this data since it almost always tilts in Kerry’s favor. But therein lies the problem. I’m skeptical about the Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal data for the same reason I’m skeptical about all of Gallup’s recent national data — it doesn’t conform with most other polls available for the same states. For example, when I see four polls in the same week from Wisconsin, and they all show Bush ahead, and then I see one poll that shows Kerry up by three, the one that stands out seems wrong. And yet, that one is the Zogby Interactive/WSJ poll.
Nevertheless, I still hope the data is largely accurate — these results show Kerry leading in 11 of the 16 most important states. Two weeks ago it was 12 of 16, so that’s not much of a slip.
Here’s the data:
Arkansas (6 electoral votes) — Kerry 46.6, Bush 46.5, Nader 2.2
Florida (27 electoral votes) — Kerry 48.1, Bush 47.6, Nader 0.9
Iowa (7 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.3, Bush 47.3, Nader 0.7
Michigan (17 electoral votes) — Kerry 51.9, Bush 45.9, Nader 0.8
Minnesota (10 electoral votes) — Kerry 51.7, Bush 42.0, Nader 3.9
Missouri (11 electoral votes) — Bush 51.5, Kerry 46.1, Nader 1.1
Nevada (5 electoral votes) — Bush 48.8, Kerry 46.6, Nader 1.2
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) — Kerry 48.1, Bush 44.5, Nader 1.6
New Mexico (5 electoral votes) — Kerry 54.3, Bush 41.6, Nader 2.2
Ohio (20 electoral votes) — Bush 50.1, Kerry 46.8, Nader 0.3
Oregon (7 electoral votes) — Kerry 53.9, Bush 41.9, Nader 1.7
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.6, Bush 47.5, Nader 0.1
Tennessee (11 electoral votes) — Bush 51.4, Kerry 45.9, Nader 0.1
Washington (11 electoral votes) — Kerry 52.8, Bush 44.1, Nader 0.8
West Virginia (5 electoral votes) — Bush 51.2, Kerry 38.8, Nader 1.1
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.3, Bush 47.9, Nader 0.3