As we get closer to Election Day, national polls are less and less meaningful in their predictive value. That said, if mid-September’s national data sent Dems everywhere into a panic, the latest polls should generate near-euphoria among the same people.
Newsweek’s national poll, for example, had Bush up by 11 less than a month ago (52-41). Thanks to Thursday’s debate, the magazine says, “The race is on.”
With a solid majority of voters concluding that John Kerry outperformed George W. Bush in the first presidential debate on Thursday, the president’s lead in the race for the White House has vanished, according to the latest Newsweek poll. In the first national telephone poll using a fresh sample, Newsweek found the race now statistically tied among all registered voters, 47 percent of whom say they would vote for Kerry and 45 percent for George W. Bush in a three-way race.
Removing Independent candidate Ralph Nader, who draws 2 percent of the vote, widens the Kerry-Edwards lead to three points with 49 percent of the vote versus the incumbent’s 46 percent.
Thanks in large part to his debate performance, Kerry has also cut Bush’s lead on handling Iraq and domestic security in half.
Likewise, the highly dubious Gallup data, which had Bush up by 14 just a couple of weeks ago, now says the national race is all tied up.
Favorable public reaction to his performance in the first presidential debate has boosted Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and narrowed the contest with President Bush to a tie, according to a new USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll…. Among likely voters, Bush and Kerry are at 49% each. Independent candidate Ralph Nader is at 1%.
But, just as the September data shouldn’t have caused national dread, this week’s data shouldn’t start the champagne celebrations. The election is four weeks from tomorrow and a lot can happen.
The latest data does, however, give Dems a much-needed morale boost, and should give the media plenty of reasons to stop saying, “President Bush, who is riding high in the polls…”