Going into tonight’s final debate, the Kerry campaign has been bucking conventional wisdom and building up expectations instead of playing them down. From today’s morning shows:
ABC’s George Stephanopoulos said “Democrats are having a hard time hiding how confident they are.”
ABC’s Dan Harris closed his package saying “there is a slight concern” in the Kerry camp that Kerry “could be overconfident” tonight.
NBC’s Norah O’Donnell noted that Kerry advisors have “changed their spin since the last debate — now they are going for pre-debate momentum, sounding almost overconfident.”
It’s an unconventional strategy, to be sure.
Part of the approach may be based on facing the reality of people’s expectations. At this point, it’s probably too late to tell everyone how great Bush is in these debates and how awful Kerry is — no one who saw the previous debates would believe it anyway. Before the first debate, a Time magazine poll showed that Americans expected Bush to win the first debate by a wide margin. In contrast, a new Gallup poll released today shows people expecting Kerry to win tonight by a 54-36 margin.
Given this, the Kerry campaign is just going with the flow, which they have limited control over anyway. It might even pay off — in dealing with inherently subjective debate performances, voters may watch assuming Kerry’s winning and give him the benefit of the doubt.
As for what to watch tonight, the real challenge may be keeping the debate focused on specifics. I think the LA Times’ Ron Brownstein was on the right track today.
President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry have honed sharply contrasting strategies for their debate on domestic policy tonight that highlight divergent views on the role of government in society and the importance of ideology in the presidential race.
Whenever possible, Bush hopes to broaden the face-off in Tempe, Ariz., from disputes over specifics — such as healthcare or education — to frame the election as a starkly ideological choice between limiting or expanding government, said a senior Republican strategist familiar with White House planning.
It’s likely to make for some awkward exchanges. Kerry will say that Bush’s record on jobs is the worst of any president in over 70 years; Bush will counter by saying that Kerry’s a liberal. Kerry will say that the number of Americans with no health insurance has gone up by 5 million people under Bush’s watch; Bush will counter by saying that Kerry supports big government. Kerry will note that the median family income has dropped for the first time in over a decade; Bush will say Kerry is a “tax-and-spender.” Specific charge vs. vague attack for 90 minutes.
Kerry got a little caught up in the St. Louis debate in explaining why he rejects labels and why he’s far more moderate than Bush makes him out to be. This was probably a mistake. The longer the debate focuses on whether Kerry really is a liberal or not, the less time gets focused on Bush’s abysmal record. Kerry shouldn’t fall for the trap tonight.
Finally, as the New York Times’ Paul Krugman noted yesterday, desperate candidates tend to spin until they’re lying, then spin some more. Conveniently, he has already fact-checked all the things you’re likely to hear tonight. Something to keep handy.