The Washington Post/ABC News daily tracking poll showed Kerry seizing the national lead from Bush for the first time yesterday, which included data from before last night’s debate. That’s good news, but the interesting part was the regional breakdowns.
The Post/ABC data doesn’t show support by state, but it does break the numbers down by part of the country. Because Kerry’s support in the South is generally weak, it’s always helpful to review the results to see where Kerry’s strong.
About two weeks ago, a Post/ABC poll showed Bush leading Kerry nationally, 51-47. Regionally, Bush led because of surprisingly strong support in the Midwest.
East — Kerry 51, Bush 44
Midwest — Bush 58, Kerry 35
South — Bush 55, Kerry 41
West — Kerry 53, Bush 41
Yesterday, Post/ABC showed Kerry leading nationally, 49-48. But look at what’s different:
East — Kerry 50, Bush 45
Midwest — Kerry 53, Bush 43
South — Bush 55, Kerry 42
West — Kerry 52, Bush 44
Comparing yesterday’s data against the same poll two weeks ago shows virtually zero change in three of the four regions. And then there’s the Midwest, which reversed dramatically.
This appears to be the only region where the presidential race is still in play. Kerry has turned things around and has the momentum, due in large part to his support in the Midwest, which has surged. There are key battleground states that will help decide the outcome, but this is the region to watch from here on out.