Sure, the presidential race is the center of the nation’s attention, but it’s helpful to look down Pennsylvania Avenue and remember that the Senate is still very much up-for-grabs. I last looked at the competitive Senate races two months ago and thought this might be a good time to see how things have changed.
Quick overview: The Senate currently has 51 Republicans, 48 Dems, and an Independent. Since Jim Jeffords (I-Vt.) caucuses with the Dems, it’s effectively a 51-49 chamber, in the GOP’s favor.
There are 34 seats up this year, and by any reasonable standard, Dems are at a disadvantage. Not only are Dems starting off in the minority, but they have to defend 19 seats, while Republicans are defending 15. Dems have to deal with five incumbents who are retiring, while the Republicans have three. An uphill climb, to be sure.
But the road to a Dem majority is looking better all the time. If Kerry wins, the Dems will need to go +2 to have 50 and be in the “majority” or +3 for 51 seats if Bush wins a second term.
Reasonable goals? Sure. Here are my Top 11 Competitive Races list, excluding Illinois, which is obviously a one-sided affair.
* Alaska — A likely Dem pick-up. Former Gov. Tony Knowles (D) has been leading Lisa Murkowski (R), who was handed the seat when her father became governor, for a long while. It’s close, but definitely leaning in Knowles’ direction.
* Colorado — Though the polls have been tightening, Attorney General Ken Salazar (D) still has an edge over beer-guy Peter Coors (R). Another likely Dem pick-up.
* Florida — Former state Education Secretary Betty Castor (D) is effectively tied with former HUD Secretary Mel Martinez (R) in the polls, but some of Martinez’s attack ads appear to be backfiring. It’s currently a Dem seat and most in-state observers see Castor keeping it that way. As Chuck Todd puts it, the “intangibles” are Castor’s favor.
* Georgia — Still the GOP’s best pick-up opportunity. Rep. Johnny Isakson (R) is almost certain to beat Rep. Denise Majette (D) for Zell Miller’s old seat.
* Kentucky — This race looked like a lost cause for months — right up until Sen. Jim Bunning appeared to start showing signs of mental instability (seriously). He’s failed to show up for events, skipped a debate, and lied about using a teleprompter in a different debate in which he wasn’t supposed to use one. Local newspapers are demanding he release his medical records and he’s refusing. Daniel Mongiardo (D), meanwhile, continues to make strides; in one poll he’s now tied. No one in America thought this would be a competitive race two months ago and now it’s a possible Dem pick-up.
* Louisiana — A case study on why Louisiana’s no-primary, run-off system is so frustrating. Rep. David Vitter (R) is the only Republican in the race, while Chris John (D) and John Kennedy (D) are tearing each other apart. Dems run the risk of seeing Vitter capture more than 50% of Election Day. If not, will Dems be able to close ranks before the run-off? We’ll see. It’s the nation’s clearest toss-up Senate contest.
* North Carolina — Erskine Bowles (D) has seen his lead over Rep. Richard Burr (R) fade of late, but he’s already absorbed the worst of the GOP smears. I still think the race is leaning Bowles’ way.
* Oklahoma — Rep. Brad Carson (D) continues to look strong against former Rep. Tom Coburn (R), who, as luck would have it, is completely insane. Why am I confident this will be another Dem pick-up? Even Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert has said Coburn will probably lose. It’s an encouraging sign.
* South Carolina — In a race that’s gone back and forth, Inez Tenenbaum (D) is still in a strong position to upset Rep. Jim DeMint (R). Their recent joint Meet the Press appearance won Tenenbaum further praise and has DeMint scrambling. This once appeared to be a likely GOP pick-up, but now it can go either way.
* South Dakota — Recent evidence of Republican fraud has soured voters further on former Rep. John Thune (R), who’s been trailing Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D) anyway. I still believe it’s Daschle’s race to lose. Two years ago, Thune lost a close race to Tim Johnson, but Daschle is better known, more widely liked, and has more money than Johnson did. I don’t see how Thune will do any better this time than last time.
* Wisconsin — It’s hard to believe, but the GOP seriously considered this a competitive race. That is, until recently. A new poll, out this morning, shows Sen. Russ Feingold (D) leading Tim Michels (R) 56-33. Last week, the NSRC pulled out of Wisconsin altogether. It’s over.
Where does that leave us? With at least three solid Dem pick-up opportunities, maybe four. Republicans, meanwhile, have one solid pick-up opportunity and several toss-ups. With this in mind, a Dem Senate is not only possible, it’s well within reach.