Long-time readers know that I was keenly interested in seeing how Cuban-American voters shifted, if at all, in this year’s presidential election. There was some polling data suggesting the GOP’s historic hold on the community was weakening, to Bush’s detriment, but the only poll that matters is on Election Day. How’d things turn out?
I’d call this progress.
John Kerry lost Florida, but state Democrats have found solace in one particular area: He made a dent in the reliably Republican Cuban-American voting block.
A sample of overwhelmingly Hispanic voting precincts in Miami-Dade shows Kerry picking up 35 percent of the vote, with 63 percent going to President Bush — a landslide for Bush, but a 10-point drop from Bush’s 73 percent backing in a similar sample in 2000.
The sample, selected by the Miami-Dade County elections department, was taken in five heavily Hispanic precincts. Though the sampling does not break out Cuban-American voters, they make up between 70 and 75 percent of the Hispanic vote in the county, and the results suggest some movement within the traditionally Republican constituency.
“You can’t move 10 points without making significant gains among Cubans,” said Sergio Bendixen, a Miami-based strategist for the New Democrat Network, which ran anti-Bush advertising, including a Miami television spot that bashed Bush’s Cuba policy. “These numbers would be the clearest signal of a change.”
I’m very much inclined to agree. It apparently wasn’t enough to change the statewide margins in our favor, but as a long-term goal, broader support for Dems in South Florida’s Latino community (which includes, but is not limited to, Cuban-Americans) will reap electoral rewards.
I had hoped this would be enough to make a difference this year, but it’s a step in the right direction.