Bush’s address to the “March for Life” on the National Mall yesterday raised a couple of interesting problems for the president, one substantive, the other political.
The speech insisted, for example, that the anti-abortion movement is making progress under his leadership.
“The America of our dreams, where every child is welcomed in law — in life, and protected in law may still be some ways away, but even from the far side of the river, Nellie, we can see its glimmerings. We’re making progress in Washington.”
The positive spin appeared to be well received by marchers, but let’s not forget that Bush must have an odd sense of what constitutes progress. As the Fuller Theological Seminary’s Glen Harold Stassen explained a few months ago:
When President Bush took office, the nation’s abortion rates were at a 24-year low, after a 17.4 percent decline during the 1990s. This was a steady decrease averaging 1.7 percent per year. (The data come from Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life using the Guttmacher Institute’s studies.)
Enter Bush in 2001. One would expect the abortion rate to continue its consistent course downward, if not plunge. Instead, the opposite happened. We found four states that have posted three-year statistics: Kentucky’s increased by 3.2 percent from 2000 to 2003. Michigan’s increased by 11.3 percent from 2000 to 2003. Pennsylvania’s increased by 1.9 percent from 1999 to 2002. Colorado’s rates skyrocketed 111 percent. We found 12 additional states that reported statistics for 2001 and 2002. Eight states saw an increase in abortion rates (14.6 percent average increase), and five saw a decrease (4.3 percent average decrease).
Under Bush, the decade-long trend of declining abortion rates appears to have reversed. Given the trends of the 1990s, 52,000 more abortions occurred in the United States in 2002 than would have been expected before this change of direction.
If the anti-abortion activists were really looking for “progress,” they’ve hitched their cart to the wrong horse.
Substance aside, one wonders how long abortion opponents will tolerate Bush’s passive disinterest in their rallies. As Marshall Whitman noted yesterday:
Today is the annual anti-abortion march in Washington. Like past Republican Presidents, W. will likely deliver a phone message that will be broadcast to the marchers. It is interesting that “ardently” pro-life Presidents never appear in person at these marches even when they are sometimes just a few blocks away in the White House. After all, W. is not reluctant to appear in person at business groups to tout his tax cut or social security plans.
Some day, perhaps, rank and file social conservatives will realize that they are being used by the Republican bosses. And maybe, Democrats can appeal to them with a politics that is sensitive to the concerns of cultural traditionalists.
Bush conveniently arranged to be at Camp David yesterday, but he’s also literally phoned it in when the March for Life met in 2004, 2003, and 2002. (In 2001, the event happened just days after Bush’s inauguration and he did not participate at all).
Maybe Dems can make an appeal to some of these activists based on the party’s drive to lower unwanted pregnancies. But in the meantime, Whitman’s other point — far-right activists should realize they’re being used — may not be all that far-fetched.