Let’s say Specter is ‘leaning against’ the nuclear option

When counting heads on which Republican senators would be willing to join Dems in opposing the “nuclear option,” Arlen Specter has been, at a minimum, leaning the right way. The Pennsylvanian told the Washington Times two weeks ago, for example, that he was wary of the change, but was non-committal about how he’d ultimately vote if the issue came to the floor.

This week, Specter’s feelings seemed a little less ambiguous.

Changing the Senate rules to prohibit filibusters of judicial nominees — the “nuclear option” — could have deleterious short-term effects and run the long-term risk of eroding the rights of the minority. “If we go to the nuclear option … the Senate will be in turmoil and the Judiciary Committee will be hell.”

Specter even disagreed with the idea that filibustering a judicial nominee is unconstitutional — a claim popular with Frist & Co. these days.

Not including Specter, five Republican senators — McCain, Hagel, Chafee, Snowe, and Collins — have indicated that they won’t support the “nuclear option.” Adding Specter to the mix makes six. With a 55-45 majority, six is the number at which the Republican majority sees the option fail.

Frist is bluffing; he doesn’t have the votes.