It looked for a while like Illinois was the ideal choice for Dems to pursue a little DeLay-like re-redistricting, but state Dems put the kibosh on the idea last week. Shifting gears, the party needs another state in which Dems control the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature. Next on the list: Louisiana.
At this point, it’s fair to say party leaders in the Bayou State seem a little hesitant.
A decision about whether to attempt a redraw of Louisiana’s Congressional lines appears to rest on Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D), and Democratic strategists are deeply divided about her intentions.
Last week’s decision by the Illinois Congressional delegation not to pursue a new round of redistricting short-circuited what many Democrats saw as their best chance of gaining seats in a mid-decade remap and focused attention and political pressure squarely on Louisiana.
Blanco has so far shown little appetite for taking on the politically divisive issue. But she has been the subject of an intense behind-the-scenes lobbying effort to sway her, the effect of which remains unclear.
Roderick Hawkins, a Blanco spokesman, sounded that sentiment Monday.
“The redistricting issue is not on the governor’s agenda at this time,” he said.
One Louisiana Democratic strategist said that Blanco doesn’t “want to fight that fight. She doesn’t want any part of that business.”
This is probably to be expected. Louisiana state politics is dominated by Dems, but really conservative Dems by national standards. Even Blanco barely eked out a victory in 2003, so it stands to reason she wouldn’t want to make any overtly partisan moves before her re-election race in 2007.
The trick, therefore, will be convincing Blanco that this is a sound political move.
The lobbying effort is already underway.
Those who believe that Blanco will ultimately give her blessing to the plan argue that all of the other Democratic power players in the state — including key black leaders — have signed on to the effort, a move that will deliver her enough political cover to bless the effort.
“We are moving in the right direction,” said one senior Democratic Congressional aide interested in seeing the remap move forward, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Louisiana is such a quirky state that it has Dems dominating state offices but Republicans dominating federal offices. Last November, Republicans ended up with five of the state’s seven House seats. If Dems wanted to fiddle with the district-line map, they could do plenty of damage. (I’d recommend targeting Rodney Alexander’s 5th congressional district first, but only because I hold grudges.)
That said, Louisiana re-redistricting is a long-shot, not just for partisan political concerns, but because logistically there just might not be enough time. The state legislature has a shortened calendar this year (only 45 legislative days), and it’s supposed to be a “fiscal session,” whereby most measures deal with budgetary and financial matters. If Dems were going to pursue this seriously, they’d have to get started right away; as of now, they haven’t even started laying the groundwork.
Still, it’s something to keep an eye on. Should the Louisiana plan fall through, it seems next on the list is New Mexico. Stay tuned.