Literally just a week ago, Senate Republicans told reporters they had finally assembled enough to votes to end Dem filibusters and approve the “nuclear option.” It came as something of a surprise since the leadership had appeared to be short a couple of votes, but Bill Frist insisted he had the “momentum” and was ready to pull the trigger on this stunt. Specifically, supporters were throwing around the number of 53 firm votes in support of going “nuclear.”
This week, it’s a different tune.
Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist does not have firm support among his caucus to employ the so-called “nuclear option” for dislodging the Democratic filibusters against President Bush’s judicial nominees.
Of the 55 Republicans in the chamber, at least six are undecided or adamantly opposed to the plan of using the rare parliamentary procedure to end the filibusters with a simple majority vote, rather than the 60 votes normally required.
“I am very concerned about the overuse of the filibuster,” said Sen. Susan Collins, a Maine Republican who said she remains undecided. “But I am also concerned that a rule change will further charge the partisan atmosphere to the point that we will not be able to conduct business.”
53 always seemed like an exaggeration, intended to intimidate Senate Dems instead of reflecting reality. But these new questions about whether they’ll get to 51 sound far more accurate. At various times, Sens. McCain, Hagel, Chafee, Snowe, Collins, Warner, and Specter have raised serious doubts about the “nuclear option,” some announcing their definitive opposition. Also reportedly on the fence are Sens. Sununu and Voinovich. That’s nine “maybes” in a fight in which the GOP can count on zero Dem votes.
My money is still on Frist bluffing. He can’t back up his bluster and he knows it, but he’ll rant and rave in the hopes that Dems will back down.
It’s also worth noting that if Frist really doesn’t have the votes to pull this off, he’ll suffer politically — it’s a test of his leadership, in advance of a presidential run no less, and if Frist has been making threats without the support to back it up, his stature and ability to control the Senate floor will suffer accordingly.