Senate Dem leader Harry Reid, as you’ve no doubt heard, unveiled a compromise solution to the judicial nominee standoff late yesterday afternoon. I’m afraid it’s not a great deal for Dems.
Maneuvering in advance of a Senate floor showdown on judicial nominees intensified Monday as Senate Democrats prepared a compromise offer to Republicans that would allow votes on some judges and showcased new tactics for confronting Republicans should filibusters be barred.
Congressional officials said Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic leader, could make a proposal as early as Tuesday to allow votes on two of three Michigan nominees for a single appeals court. It could be coupled with other guarantees to Republicans, potentially including a vote on one of four candidates drawing the deepest opposition. In return, the majority would have to forswear any rules changes that prevented filibusters.
“There is a way to avoid the nuclear shutdown, and I’m working with my colleagues to put that plan in place,” Mr. Reid said in a statement issued Monday evening, though he and his aides refused to provide details.
The details are sketchy, but Reid’s offer gives Republicans up-or-down votes on a few ridiculous nominees — exactly who and how many is unclear — while Dems get assurances that the nuclear option is off the table altogether.
On the surface, this seems like an all-around bad deal for the Dems, who by all indications, are winning the overall fight and have less of an incentive to strike a compromise that helps the GOP. I suspect, however, there’s more to this strategy than first meets the eye.
There has to be a reason for Reid to come to the table with this kind of idea right now. I was on a conference call with Reid yesterday and he showed absolute confidence in this fight, without a hint of reservation or willingness to back down. It doesn’t make sense of Reid to turn around, a few hours later, to offer a deal that benefits the other side.
To be sure, this isn’t an offer that reflects a strong position. The Republicans would get what they want most (right-wing judges on the bench), while Dems would get what they already have (the ability to filibuster). What kind of compromise is that?
As luck would have it, it’s the kind of deal that Frist can’t accept. And Reid knows it.
Almost immediately after Reid’s offer was made public, Karl Rove dismissed it, saying judicial filibusters still had to be eliminated. Indeed, that’s exactly what Bill Frist had to be thinking as well. The Majority Leader has just promised every far-right group, leader, and activist in America that he’s going to execute the nuclear option, and his top deputy (Whip Mitch McConnell) has boasted of having the votes to pull it off.
As Josh Marshall noted, Frist can’t very well call James Dobson now and tell him the whole plan is shot. Dobson and his cohorts have told Frist what they want — unless Frist plans to give up his presidential campaign before it starts, he can’t accept a compromise now.
So, why would Reid offer a plan at all? Because there’s nothing but upside to appearing flexible. Reid can tell wavering GOP moderates (Specter, Collins, Hagel, maybe Warner) that he’s trying to negotiate and offer Frist a deal that clears the way for more Bush nominees — but Frist won’t listen. Reid also gets the positive press that comes along with being the first one to offer a solution to the stalemate.
At least, I hope that’s what’s happening. In this chess game, it’s sometimes hard to guess everyone’s competing motivations, but I still have a hunch that Reid is pushing Frist into an increasingly difficult spot.