If Bill Frist follows through on his nuclear-option threats, the vote will be very close. Indeed, if Frist doesn’t believe he has 50, we probably won’t see the GOP even try, since failing is more embarrassing than delay.
It’s why Republican frustration with Arlen Specter is growing more intense.
Senate Republicans are expressing concerns that Judiciary Committee Chairman Arlen Specter will defy party leaders and oppose the so-called “nuclear option” to end Democratic filibusters against President Bush’s judicial nominees.
[A]Senate speech last week in which Mr. Specter advised senators to ignore “party loyalty” has some Republicans convinced that he might break party ranks — a move that could doom Republican support for overriding the filibusters.
“He all but said he would buck Republican leadership on this,” one Republican Judiciary Committee aide said.
My take on Specter’s speech was far less certain, but if the GOP is convinced that Specter will side with the Dems on this, I’m delighted to hear it. Dems need the vote.
And what did Specter say that got his Republican colleagues so worked up?
“Thought requires independence, not response to party loyalty or any other form of dictation. The lessons of our best days as a nation should serve as a model today for senators to vote their consciences on the confirmation of judges and on the constitutional/nuclear option.”
Thought over partisanship, with an emphasis on conscience. It’s amazing Frist & Co. didn’t just expel him from the caucus on the spot.
Nevertheless, let’s take a moment to review the latest head count.
To pull off the nuclear option, Republicans need 50 votes (Cheney would vote to break the tie). Dems start off with 45 votes (44 plus Jim Jeffords) and need six Republican lawmakers to break with their party to succeed.
* GOP lawmakers who will vote against the nuclear option: John McCain (Ariz.), Lincoln Chafee (R.I.)
* GOP lawmakers who are strongly leaning in the Dems’ direction: Olympia Snowe (Maine), Susan Collins (Maine), Arlen Specter (Pennsylvania)
* GOP lawmakers who seem to be slightly leaning in the Dems’ direction: John Warner (Va.)
* GOP lawmakers “on the fence”: Chuck Hagel (Neb.), Gordon Smith (Ore.)
* GOP lawmakers who are listed as “on the fence,” but who have told Frist they’re with him: Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), John Sununu (N.H.), Mike DeWine (Ohio), Chuck Lugar (Ind.), Lindsey Graham (S.C.)
Harry Reid said on the conference call on Monday that Frist would have pulled the trigger on this thing already if he had the votes, which means he’s not there yet. Stay tuned.