The question of whether Bill Frist has the votes to pull off the nuclear option or not has been the subject of intense scrutiny here and elsewhere. On the record, most Republican senators paint it as a foregone conclusion: the votes are there and the floor confrontation is inevitable. Indeed, just this week, Frist told USA Today “he will have the votes.”
Did you notice that “will” in there? Does it suggest, perhaps, that he hasn’t quite wrapped up 50 votes? At least one Republican has told the New York Daily News that he’s still short (via Tapped).
Sources told the Daily News that Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist lacks the 50 votes he needs, which could be a blow to his presidential hopes. “I don’t think Frist has the votes,” a GOP aide said. “He’s now in his own corner. If he doesn’t have the votes, he’s really screwed.”
Just for the sake of conversation, let’s assume this is correct and Frist is a vote or two short. What does he do? He could either bring the nuclear option to the floor and hope the far-right base is placated by an unsuccessful vote or he can put it off to try and avoid embarrassment.
Both options are fraught with peril for the inept Majority Leader. If Frist tries and fails, his credibility is shot, the Dems get a huge victory, his ability to lead is permanently undermined, and his presidential ambitions are damaged. But if Frist decides to wait, he still has a problem: how long can he put this off? The White House and the rest of the GOP expect some votes on judicial nominees. What’s Frist going to do between now and October 2006? Ask them to be patient until 2007?
The GOP aide who talked to the Daily News sounds right to me. Frist has backed himself into a corner from which he can’t escape.