Roll Call reported today that several Senate centrists — from both parties — are near a deal that would end the stalemate over judicial nominees, at least until 2007.
A bipartisan coalition of Senators believe it is close to a deal that would avert the looming showdown between Republicans and Democrats over judicial filibusters.
The potential deal, spearheaded by Sens. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), would involve at least a half-dozen Senators from each party signing a letter or memorandum of understanding that signals how they would proceed to vote on all matters related to judicial nominations.
The six Senate Republicans would commit to opposing the so-called nuclear option to end judicial filibusters, which would leave GOP leaders short of the 50 votes they need to execute the parliamentary move to abolish the procedure.
In exchange, the six Senate Democrats would pledge to allow votes on four of the seven circuit court nominees who were already filibustered in the 108th Congress and have been renominated.
Perhaps more importantly, the six Democrats would pledge to vote for cloture to end filibuster attempts on all other judicial nominees named by President Bush, including Supreme Court picks, except in “extreme circumstances,” according to a senior aide familiar with the discussions.
There’s a lot not to like about this deal if you’re a Dem. In fact, there’s hardly anything to like at all. The Republicans would leave the ability to filibuster in tact — meaning Dems will get something they already have — and in exchange, Dems give up the right to block four extremist judicial nominees, while also giving the White House a green light to nominate a fairly radical justice for the Supreme Court.
Mutual sacrifice? Equitable concessions? Hardly.
It’s important to note, however, that it may not be up to Bill Frist and/or Harry Reid to accept or reject this proposal. It may happen whether most senators hate it or not.
The agreement would not require a single vote to be cast for it to be executed. As long as each side has at least six Senators willing to uphold it, Senate Republicans would be unable to carry out the nuclear option and Senate Democrats would be unable to execute a successful filibuster.
If Frist wanted to, he could still force a vote on the parliamentary move to end the filibuster — something he is widely expected to do sometime this month — but it would face certain defeat if the six Republicans held strong.
That’s the most interesting part of the negotiations. Frist would probably reject the deal — even though it strongly benefits the GOP — because the party base is demanding action on the nuclear option. At this point, it’s fair to say Frist doesn’t even want a compromise unless it clears the way for all of Bush’s nominees to be confirmed. Since this compromise leaves three would-be judges behind, it’s a non-starter for him.
But with at least six Republican senators (it’s unclear which six) on board for this deal, Frist doesn’t have a choice. They won’t back the nuclear option when they have this deal instead. Reid’s in the same boat, since he wouldn’t be able to keep up the filibusters if five Dems break with their party.
It’s hard to know for sure how serious these negotiations are and how close they are finalizing a deal. One aide familiar with the discussions told Roll Call, “It’s very close.”
I’ll have more on this tomorrow. Stay tuned.