When it comes to scheduling the Senate showdown over judicial nominations, Bill Frist’s credibility is a little shaky. He’s been making various promises/threats to various constituencies about when the fight would come to the floor for months.
We might see the vote in March, Frist said. Or maybe early April. Make that late April. Or rather, the first week in May. Did he say early May? He meant late May. After a while, both sides start to look at Frist as the boy who cried “nuclear.”
The latest threat, however, seems more serious because it’s a bit more specific and formal in its guarantee. From where I sit, I’m still skeptical about whether Frist has the votes, but I’m very much inclined to believe the fight will come to a head next week. Why? Because Frist’s backers aren’t giving him a choice.
Senior aides to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) reached out to conservative leaders Tuesday afternoon to explain the decision to consider President Bush’s embattled judicial nominees next week instead of this week, as many conservatives had hoped and expected.
Eric Ueland, Frist’s chief of staff, and Bill Wichterman, a senior Frist aide who handles outreach to outside groups, held a conference call with about 30 conservative activist leaders to tell them that the majority leader has moved slowly and deliberately in an effort to put Republicans in a strong position heading into a showdown with Democrats, according to participants.
The call was considered sensitive enough that Frist’s staff used a scrambling device to prevent it from being recorded by participants.
It was a veritable who’s who of right wingers. Dobson was on the call (naturally), as were representatives from the Southern Baptist Convention, the Judicial Confirmation Network, the American Center for Law & Justice, the Coalition for a Fair Judiciary, and Concerned Women for America.
Frist’s bravado has kicked into high gear, but at this point, these groups are frustrated. They not only want the nuclear option desperately, they expected it to be done by now.
Conservative leaders had anticipated that Frist would trigger the option during the week before the May recess. Conservative activists were told in mid-April to ramp up their communication effort to peak the week of April 25.
Several conservative leaders then expected Frist to act on judges this week, and a few predicted an angry backlash if Frist did not do so when the Senate returned from the recess.
“It must happen next week,” Manuel Miranda, chairman of the National Coalition to End the Judicial Filibuster, said during last week’s recess. “It would be considered intolerable to delay any further than next week. … Were it to be delayed beyond the next week, the Senate GOP should expect tens of thousands of angry phone calls and faxes to tie up their lines.”
More than ever before, Frist is in a corner from which there is no escape. Dems have called for a vote, Republicans have called for a vote, the conservative base demands a vote, and Frist has promised a vote. If Frist were to try to push off this vote again, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that we’d start hearing talk about replacing him as Majority Leader. The right is that passionate about this.
But what if Frist simply doesn’t have the votes to pull it off? At this point, he’s probably concluded it doesn’t matter — there are only degrees of unattractive options. If Frist tries and wins, he’s a right-wing hero. If he tries and fails, he’ll look like a weak leader, but he’ll blame the GOP centrists and let them take the fall with the base. But if he stalls for more time, he’ll be seen as inept, weak, and incompetent — and the base will go apoplectic.
Stay tuned.