Just to clarify a point that’s come up in a few emails I’ve received, the Senate is debating Priscilla Owen’s judicial nomination today, but the vote on the nuclear option probably won’t come until early next week. Mike Allen and Jeffrey Birnbaum had a helpful rundown in today’s Washington Post of what to expect in the coming days:
At 9:30 a.m. today, the Senate will begin debating Bush’s nomination of Priscilla Richman Owen, an abortion opponent on the Texas Supreme Court who was nominated to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit, based in New Orleans.
Tomorrow or Friday, Frist and other Republican senators are likely to file a motion seeking cloture, or an end to debate. One session day must pass before a vote to end debate, so a vote would be held and Republicans would expect to get fewer than 60 votes to confirm Owen.
Frist aides say he has not decided exactly what would occur next. But the scenario most widely expected among senators in both parties is that he would seek a ruling from the chair — Vice President Cheney, if it looked as if the vote was going to be close — that filibustering judicial nominations is out of order. Assuming the chair agreed, Reid would then object and ask that the ruling of the chair be tabled. Most Republicans would then vote against the Democratic motion, upholding the ruling. Then the Senate would move to a vote on Owen, and a precedent will have been set that it takes 51 votes, not 60, to cut off debate on a judicial nomination.
If they have 51 votes, that is.
On a related note, I was on a conference call with Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) about an hour ago and there’s guarded optimism on the Dem side of the aisle about how this will play out. Among the highlights from the call:
* Schumer said the four votes to watch are Collins (Maine), Warner (Va.), Specter (Pa.), and Hagel (Neb.). If Dems get three of these four, which is by no means unrealistic, the nuclear option loses.
* Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) may have expressed some hesitation about the tactic over the weekend, but Dems don’t really expect him to break with his party on this.
* The Dem line is no longer that we’ll “bring the Senate to a halt” should Frist successfully execute the nuclear option. Instead, Schumer noted that the Dems will use parliamentary maneuvers to “wrest control of the agenda” from the Republican majority, including forcing bills onto the floor that Frist & Co. do not support and would not want votes on. (Harry Reid outlined some of these agenda items in January.)
* Schumer and other Dems who are taking the lead on this issue talked this morning to the Dems who are part of the six-by-six negotiations. Schumer said the emphasis was on two points Dems should include as part of any compromise: the nuclear option has to be off the table for the rest of the 109th Congress and there should be no limits on the right of lawmakers to launch a filibuster. (Whether the six-by-six participants care about Schumer’s stated terms is another matter.)
* Schumer pegged the chances of a compromise successfully ending the crisis at “about 35%.”
I’ll share more news as I get it.