Deal

Details are sketchy, and everything will be clearer in the morning, but it looks like an 11th hour compromise has been reached that will avoid the nuclear option.

Senators from both parties reached a compromise Monday night to avoid a showdown on President Bush’s stalled judicial nominees and the Senate’s own filibuster rules.

“We have reached an agreement … to pull the institution back from a precipice … that would have had damaging impact on the institution,â€? said Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., at a news conference where the agreement was announced.

Earlier, officials from both parties, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the agreement would clear the way for yes or no votes on some of Bush’s nominees but make no guarantee.

Under the agreement, Democrats would pledge not to filibuster any of Bush’s future appeals court or Supreme Court nominees except in “extraordinary circumstances.�

For their part, Republicans agreed not to support an attempt to strip Democrats of their right to block votes.

As part of the deal, Dems will end the filibuster of Priscilla Owen, whose nomination will be approved by the Senate soon.

Again, because details are limited at this point, it’s hard to say with certainty who benefits most from the deal or even judge the compromise on the merits. I can, however, say that the fact that a deal has been reached is a significant defeat for Bill Frist, who put himself on the line to make the nuclear-option vote a reality. Enough of his caucus saw him going in the wrong direction, so they cut the legs out from beneath him.

If even one Bush nominee is left out of the confirmation process as part of this deal, the far right will be apoplectic — and they’re likely to hold Frist responsible.

Much detail more tomorrow.

Update: Thumb-nail version of what’s happened: Brown, Owen, and Pryor (the three worst) get floor votes, Saad and Myers get filibustered (and probably withdrawn), Dems can still filibuster Supreme Court nominee(s). I’d be lying if I said I liked the deal, but Bill Frist wanted two things very badly: up-or-down votes on every nominee and an end to judicial filibusters forevermore. He’s getting neither. It’s not a zero-sum game, but Frist is tonight’s big loser.

Second Update: C&L has some video of Frist from the Senate floor. While Harry Reid was smiling and claiming victory, Frist looked dejected and said he was disappointed. C&L also has some links to amusing vitriol from the right in response to the “compromise.”

Perceptions matter in fights like these and, whether I like the deal or not, the narrative will be: The right lost this one.

this is bad. bad bad bad. I don’t like it one bit.

  • I’m inclined to agree, but the reason I hold that opinion is mainly due to Carpetbagger’s own commentaries on prevous failed compromises. So I’m unlikely to have a strong view until Carpetbagger explains it all to us. 🙂

  • Well, no matter how bad this may seem, a deal has been made. The good thing about it is that Frist comes out of the whole thing looking like a chump – for me, (some loser on the internets) it’s all I really wanted out of this anyway.

    Someone at atrios’ comments said the freepers are going NUTS over this, which also is a good thing…of course there’s plenty of people in atrios’ comments going nuts as well.

    Lemonaid, people, lemonaid…

  • Oh– one question: if it’s bad for Frist, isn’t it at least a little bad for Reid? He’s not even mentioned in the MSN article there. Or perhaps because Reid didn’t put his neck out as much, he’s not as damaged? I dunno.

  • Re: Freeper comments — I’m half-way through reading this collection:

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/5/23/201133/386

    Puts a whole other light on the “compromise”. PS – Moderate Repubs. now discover they have “veto power” over radical right-wing agenda — a good thing. a crack appears slow, and may soon enlarge.

  • I think Reid and the Dems come out much better than the Repubs, since the “obstructionist” mud the right has been throwing no longer sticks. Reid always held out hope for a compromise, something that Frist’s hardline approach left little room for. Will this compromise be the rebirth of Republican moderates?

  • Agreed, aReader.

    One concern I have is the “signatories will exercise their responsibilities and the nominees should only be filibusters under extraordinary circumstances” clause. Someone on fox said that Janice Rogers Brown, William Pryor and Priscilla Owen are now the “bar” for “extraordinary circumstances,” so a nominee would have to be more radical than, say, Owen, to be filibustered under this deal.

    Does that reason out?

  • As near as I can tell, this compromise allows the Democrats to think they have the right to filibuster as long as they promise never again to do so. If they ever attempt to filibuster, the Republicans reserve the right to initiate the nuclear option again. And the Republicans now get to vote in all of their candidates with impunity. Who won this round?

  • I’m not sure who won, but Frist, Dobson and Bush lost and though it is still hanging by a thread, the Senate is preserved.

  • This deal is terrible for progressives. Moreover, since Frist probably had his 51 votes and the Democrats had already reneged on their promise from two months ago to work on no legislation other than their own and appropriations bills if the “nuclear option” were exercised, our problem should be apparent. Democrats again nakedly demonstate their absence of a crucial body part: the spine. Michael McConnell (a terrible but allegedly “learned” conservative) will be on the Supreme Court by the fall; all manner of bad legislation will be enacted.
    Sorry for the negativity, but this will go down in history as one of the greatest “idiots’ compromises” of our time.

  • I know that many of you do not like this compromise. I know it looks lopsided.

    But, I’m going to praise it because for once a bi-partisan compromise has been reached.

    Most of the people who read this site are partisans. We would like nothing more than for our side to always win. That is the attitude to have if this was an election, but it is not.

    For true governing to happen, compromises are a must. Sure some of them smell like roses and others like a hog farm in the middle of a diarreah epidemic. No matter what, a compromise is needed to find the middle ground to move action along and solve problems.

    We all saw how damaging it could be if this madness was allowed the extent that Majority Leader Frist wanted. Let us breathe a sigh of relief that the Senate did not go nuclear.

    When I worked in the Kansas House of Representatives, we engineered a deal one year to write the state’s budget with the Conservative Republicans. They probably got more out of the deal than we did. Yet, it was that deal that set aside the tobbaco lawsuit money solely for children’s programs and not for general state expenditures like the Moderate Republicans wanted.

    We were able to get that win becuase we compromised. If we had just stood as a group and said no over and over bridges would be built now on the money from Phillip Morris instead of going to help with pre-school programs.

    Did we always get everything, no, but we got wins from doing this, and managed to make Kansas a better state little by little.

    Now it is up to the Democrats in the Senate to do that time honored legislative exercise, finding the next group of people to add to the dance card for the next compromise to give Frist and Bush a black eye.

  • goddamn whoosie democrats. they had the cards. they could have won the pot. instead they decided to split it. always doing the safe thing. that’s why they lose.

  • Looks like a clear (albeit not absolute) win for the Dems, and a partial defeat for Frist and Bush. They got some terrible nominees through, but lost on the major thrust of their effort. Their base will be enraged (as it was with the outcome of the Schiavo business) and there will be dissension and frustration in their ranks.

    I wonder if this deal will hold. There will be huge pressure on the moderates as a result of this, and the extreme right is nothing if not relentless.

    There is a way for us to get better deals. We need to win elections. Until we do this is as good as it’s likely to get. Hats off to Harry Reid for a masterful playing of a weak hand.

  • here’s how this will end and in maybe a week: to replace the judges that got dinged by the deal, bush will nominate even more outrageous candidates, perhaps even a horse, and dare the dems to filibuster them. which they will. and immediately the repubs will say the dems went back on their promise, that no one is good or reasonable enough, blah blah blah. it’s all a set up. now i understand why half the country doesn’t take the dems seriously on security. when you have your foot on your enemy’s neck, you don’t let him get back up and you sure as hell don’t hand him his bayonet while throwing your arm around his shoulder.

  • My immediate reaction is disappointment. Not “the sky is falling”, “they sold us out” outrage spewing from the fringes on both sides, but I’m disappointed nonetheless. First, I really was looking forward to the drama. This was going to be exciting no matter what happened, and now this seems completely anti-climactic. But I’m also disappointed because I think we snatched a lesser defeat from the jaws of an uncertain victory.

    The probelm with this and every compromise floated before it, is that the Dems have to give something up right off the bat, while the Republicans are merely agreeing to the status quo. Sort of. The Republicans agree (for now) not to try and eliminate the filibuster if the Democrats (for now) agree not to use it except in extreme (?) circumstances.

    So it seems like we effectively stopped half of these judges and retained the ability to filibuster a Supreme court nominee. Since the filibuster of Supreme Court nominees is the ultimate prize, we win here. It was never really about these particular judges for the White House. This was all about picking this fight, and provoking the nuclear option vote. They were counting on it, and counting on winning it. That’s why the stakes were so high for the religious fundamentalists. It’s all about Rehnquist’s seat. If they won, they would have set the stage for ramming a true idealogue onto the Supreme Court.

    So why am I lukewarm on this? Well, I think we might still have won. If that happened, it would really have split the Republican party, the White House would have tremendous black eye, and the fundamentalist religious right would have been dealt a big blow. Now, we’ll never know. Doing that kind of damage was worth the risk.

    And if we didn’t have the votes to win? I liked Reid’s plan for retaliation — to abandon the Senate comity rules. This was mischaracterized as “the Democrats will shut down the Senate.” Not true. Unlike Gingrich, the Democrats wouldn’t literally close anything down, they’d just start offering up their own agenda. It is a courtesy that the majority party is allowed to set the agenda, and if the majority is going to toss all tradition and comity out the window, why should we oblige them further? Reid had tremendous legislation lined up and would have forced the Republicans to go on record voting it down. I liked that plan.

    As it stands now, the Democrats will be forced to filibuster someone down the road, whether for the Appeals Court or the Supreme Court. Bush will make sure of it. And then, the Republicans, Fox and Rush will cry that the Democrats are renegging on their deal, and we are back where we started. Except the worst of these judges will already be comfortably on the bench, and we’ll have let the Republicans off the hook—public opinion was with us on this, next time, I don’t think we’ll be so lucky.

    This deal was probably the prudent move. But once in a while I want go for something more than prudent, I want to go for the throat.

  • I have very mixed emotions about this, not least of which is the possibility that Frist will simply say he was ambushed by moderates in his own party and can’t be held responsible for not making the nuclear option happen.

    Not to mention that the very worst of the latest nominees will most likely make it to the bench and wreak untold damage on the population for years to come.

    What makes me cautiously optimistic is the fact that the extreme right wing seems genuinely outraged by this deal, and that’s a good sign. The real test will be whether or not this whole mess somehow leads to a better life for the American people when all is said and done.

    And I have to say that if Harry Reid is genuinely pleased with the outcome, then I’ll go along with it. Reid is truly a smart and tough man, and I’ll trust his judgement for the time being.

    I’m going to get a real deep rug to pray on, though, just to be on the safe side…..

  • I think it is peace. Peace for our time.

    We give Hitler Czechoslovokia and part of France, and he agrees not to invade anyone else. I think this truly can avoid war. We have stepped back from the precipice.

    This Missouri compromise is great: all existing Southern states can keep their slaves, but any new states created will be Free. We can stand down from war, and preserve the Union in peace.

    Come on, people, we didn’t win anything significant. We lost ground, and they lost face. They needed a supermajority to change the rules, and they never had one. Where did this 52 votes talking point come from? They needed 67 votes to go “nuclear”, and they never had anywhere near. They knew that. This whole “nuclear option” thing was a toy gun they pointed at us, and we gave them our wallet. Not good.

    So here we are, we can at least claim a PR victory since most people have no idea what just happened, except that Democrats were on the side of moderation and Repugs were on the side of dropping nuclear weapons on the Capitol. The right-wingnuts are outraged and pissed off at having been “sold out” by their more sensible comrades– but don’t think that’ll stop them. Outrage fatigues us but it fuels them, and they will double and triple their efforts to get more Repugs elected in 2006. They never get tired of being outraged, they love it, and they just get more and more powerful the more angry and unhinged they are. They will target and terminate moderate Repugs with a vengeance in 2006 primaries; just wait till you see these guys in action.

    All we did is perhaps stall them, and fade away to fight another day. Not a bad strategy, mind you. And Reid’s rhetoric, enforcement of party discipline and cohesion, and media-savvy political strategy were outstandingly good. By far the best job I’ve seen Democrats do in a generation– but unfortunately that’s not saying much.

    Reid clearly won the PR battle, and bravo for him. I’m not blaming him for losing ground; Rove maneuvered him here and he had no choice. He made lemonade, and did it expertly. But in reality we lost a ton of ground, and are in a very tenuous position with another year to go before elections. Politics trumped substance as it always does, but in this case I do believe Reid won on the politics, which is quite a nice turnaround from the usual situation. Still, I refuse to stick my head in the sand about the loss on substance. That sucks. Better luck next time.

  • All we did is perhaps stall them, and fade away to fight another day.

    I don’t mind the strategy of fading away to fight another day. It’s just that the “fighting another day” part never seems to come for our democratic leaders. If all you EVER do is “fade away”, that’s a complete retreat.

    I’m not optimistic.

  • Word has it that Specter would have voted with Frist. If that’s so then this deal is a significant step up from what we would have gotten if it hadn’t happened.

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