There’s been plenty of discussion about the latest Washington Post/ABC poll, but I wanted to emphasize the president’s slipping support on handling the “campaign against terrorism.”
The rest of the poll, predictably, offers bad news for Bush on his overall job rating, and his handling of most of the major policy areas, including Social Security, Iraq, and the economy. Of course, the president’s support in each of these areas has been slipping for months, so none of this comes as a big surprise.
But when respondents were asked if they approved or disapproved the way Bush was handling the terrorist threat, the results were unexpected. The president did better on this question than other major policies, but his support was 50% approve, 49% disapprove. It’s the worst he’s done on this question since the question started getting asked shortly after 9/11.
This has always been Bush’s ace in the hole. No matter how badly he was slipping in other areas, the president could count on the public backing his handling of the terrorist issue.
In mid March, for example, Bush’s approval rating was stuck at an underwhelming 50%, and the public was offering limited support on the president’s handling of most policy issues. His handling of terrorism, however, bolstered his overall standing. Then, Bush was 59-38 on handling the campaign against terrorism. Less than three months later, approval on this issue has slipped nine points, while disapproval has jumped 11 points.
Without this issue, Bush doesn’t have a failsafe issue anymore.
As Ezra Klein noted, this points to a rejection of Bush’s overall presidency.
If his ratings are nosediving on terrorism, we’re seeing a direct rejection of the Bush persona. Nothing has happened recently to publicly signal a change in fortunes in our fight against al-Qaeda, so this means that, in the eyes of America, Bush himself is becoming smaller, less threatening, less impressive, less equal to the task. By injecting himself into piddling partisan fights and arguments over Senate procedures — and losing — Bush has destroyed confidence in his single, seeming unshakeable strong point.
Till now, terrorism was endlessly salient and blissfully intangible; no matter how many other issues Bush lost their confidence on Americans always believed in his leadership against terror, and so they always overlooked the rest. Without terror, however, Bush is a lame duck, much like he was before the Towers were struck.
I think this is absolutely right. Nothing dramatic has happened on the terrorism front in recent months, and yet, the public is souring on the one issue Bush has tied himself to closer than any other. A lot of voters backed Bush last November on the fear of terrorism, and now these same voters are dissatisfied.
The drop in Bush’s approval ratings on fighting terrorism came disproportionately from political independents. In March, 63 percent of independents approved of Bush’s job combating terrorism. By April this had fallen to 54 percent. And in this weekend’s survey, 40 percent gave him good marks.
That sound you hear is the evaporation of Bush’s political capital.