Monday’s political round-up

June 13, 2005

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Now that the field is set in New Jersey, polls in the state, not surprisingly, show Sen. Jon Corzine (D) ahead of businessman Doug Forrester (R). A new Star-Ledger poll has Corzine up by 10 (43-33), which follows a Rasmussen poll from last week showing Corzine up seven (47-40).

* Republicans in Massachusetts are having so much trouble finding a credible challenger to run against Sen. Edward Kennedy (D) next year that the Boston Herald has joked that the party may resort to “help wanted ads.”

* Speaking of Massachusetts, if Gov. Mitt Romney (R) runs for president, which seems increasingly likely, he will endorse Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey (R) as his successor. Healey secured the governor’s promise of an endorsement after a series of private conversations between the two elected officials earlier this year.

* Colorado Dems believe two-term representative, and leading gay-marriage opponent, Marilyn Musgrave (R) may be vulnerable next year, and three current or former state legislators are already positioning themselves for the 2006 campaign. State Rep. Angie Paccione (D) has already publicly declared that she is thinking of running for the seat. Former State Sen. Stan Matsunaka (D), who ran in 2002 and 2004, is also intent on giving the race another shot. Meanwhile, State Rep. Wes McKinley (D) — who described himself as a “Bible-thumpin’, whiskey-drinkin’, gun-totin’ Democrat” — is also eyeing the race, but has said he would defer to Paccione is she runs.

* There’s so much activity among those who may run for president in 2008 that I may need to create a separate round-up post just for the aspirants. First up is retired Gen. Wesley Clark (D) who was in New Hampshire yesterday, delivering a blistering critique of the Bush administration’s foreign policy. Clark would not say whether he’s running in for the White House in 2008, but would not rule it out.

* Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.), best known for his rabid opposition to immigration, said over the weekend that he’s grown so frustrated with the pace and direction of immigration “reform,” that he may run for president to deal with the issue. “If no one is willing to pick up the banner…yeah, I’ll run,” Tancredo said in New Hampshire.

* Sens. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) and Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) addressed the Wisconsin Democratic Party convention over the weekend, both hinting that they are mulling a bid for president.

* Virginia Gov. Mark Warner (D) has opened a federal fundraising committee and hired a former Al Gore consultant to try to elevate his national profile in advance of a likely presidential campaign. He also has an interesting interview with Salon today.

* Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) has been spending a lot of time wooing DC Republicans lately and a source close to the governor confirmed to Roll Call that “he is planning to run for president.”

Can’t find someone to run against Ted Kennedy? Maybe Alan Keyes is available…

  • Speaking of Democratic Presidential candidates for 2008, there are still some in the “Democratic wing of the Democratic Party” who yearn for a candidate that is unafraid to push back against Bush thugery that is ongoing. Who will tell Cheney to go fuck himself when he comes up to Capitol Hill. Bayh, Clinton, Edwards, Warner, Biden, Richardson, and almost all of the others with aspirations are just too timid. The only optimism I feel anymore is when Howard Dean calls the Rethug bastards out for what they are, and the above list of go-along-to-get-along pretenders blast Dean and say, “He doesn’t speak for me.” Well, guess what, Howard Dean speaks for all the real ordinary-Joe type Dems in this country, including me.

    We need three things to win the White House in 2008:

    (1) Real electoral voting reform, so that the vote can’t be stolen again by the Rethug Secretary of States as party appartchiks.

    (2) Howard Dean stays on as the DNC Chair, to get the 50-state strategy implemented, and to focus on the individual versus corporte elite powers — Biden is owned by MBNA, Clinton gave in to the Bush lies on Iraq — we need someone to speak for all of the people who live outside the Beltway. Howard Dean is the GOP nightmare that they can’t shut up, the “little mouse that roars.”

    (3) A Presidential candidate that has fire in his/her belly and isn’t afraid to show it. Only two candidates are out there right now that fit this (Mark Warner is not one of them, as I just don’t know enough about him right now; Russ Feingold is not, either, as his ties to AIPAC are too strong, and his caving in on real campaign finance reform makes him like McCain, a “maverick” in name only).

    One of the two candidates I could get serious about is Wesley Clark, for the same reasons he was starting to make progress in 2004 but entered too late to gain sufficient traction: serious foreign policy, military and management experience and credentials; sufficent liberal leanings to understand what small people want and need. But, in the end he is not sufficently populist enough for me.

    The other candidate is Al Gore. Having gone through the crucible of 2004, Gore has become the most flaming populist we have, and he is unafraid to call Bush a liar and to say “shit” when it is spewed by BushCo. Gore has the wonk bona fides that make other wanna-be’s look like mental midgets. He knows who he is, and has the passion and courage to show it — what the hell can the press, the courts, the party do to him that hasn’t already been done?

    I am sick and tired of DINOs — Dems in Name Only, like Liberman, the Nelsons, Biden, and on and on and fucking on. Gore has been there, has more credentials and experience than any of them, and would not repeat the mistakes of 2000. “Attack” is now his middle name, as a man changed by the forces of history.

    Real, honest, and fair elections; Howard Dean continues as the mouse that roars; and Al Gore as our Presidential candidate in 2008 … ahhh, this is the closest I get to a political wet dream!

  • I’m becoming a big fan of Wesley Clark myself and I hope he continues the process of defining himself as a candidate for the top spot. Aside from him, the only viable candidates with any hope in my view would come from the ranks of the Democratic governors. It’s pretty obvious now that any senator, no matter how well qualified, carries too much baggage to be effective. Passing legislation is such a complicated process that any voting record can be twisted and spun beyond all recognition, as John Kerry can attest with extreme pain.

    And frankly, next time I want somebody on the ticket that really has a chance to win and isn’t there just because their heart is in the right place. Of all the current crop Gen. Clark seems strongest to me and I sincerely wish him well.

  • This weekend the MN Republican party ousted its leader Ron Ebinstiener in favor of a more conservative party boss. Apparently they right was upset with the fact that the Republican governor proposed a tax (um sorry “health administration fee”) on cigarettes to help resolve the budget impasse. The beauty here is that in retaliation for not holding the conservative no new taxes line the party shifts more to the right. This could spell disaster in MN where pragmatism is the overwhelming attitude. More and more the MN party looks like the national party and I only hope that all the conservative lawmakers who have so closely aligned themselves with Bush will feel the heat for his failures. I’m looking at you, Gov. Pawlenty, Sen. Coleman, Rep. Kennedy, and Rep. Kline!

  • Analytical Liberal,

    Like virtually all of your comments, I agree with the vast majorty of it. However, I think Wes Clark may have more potential than you give him credit for. Sadly, a big part of our presedential elections rests on popularity–and frankly Al Gore just isn’t that charismatic. I think given a little more time and some polishing and Wes Clark can win the “which candidate would you like to have a beer with” poll. Again, regrettably, that seems to be a considerable factor in our national political landscape. Plus, when you look at Clark’s actual positions, domestically he is quite liberal. Sort of like a mirror image of McCain but on the left: unassailable on national defense issues, percieved to be moderate and centrist, but in reality supports quite liberal policies. Imagine Clark with Edwards as a running mate. Enough populism for you then?

  • Question for those in the know: what happens to Corzine’s seat if he wins the NJ Gubentorial race? Is it an open seat during the same election as the Governor or does Corzine get to pick his replacement?

    thanks in advance!

  • Edo, if Corzine wins, he’ll get to name his own replacement to serve out the balance of his Senate term. This has led to a series of top-tier Dems working hard to help Corzine and stay in his good graces. The top contenders, at this point, appear to be Reps. Bob Menendez, Frank Pallone, and Rob Andrews.

    Regardless, if Corzine wins, his replacement won’t have much time to get settled in the Senate. He (or she) will have to run for another term a year later, in 2006.

  • Edo,

    Thanks for your comments. I could live with Clark (very nicely, actually), especially if the election reform and Howard Dean pieces are in place. While I admit that Clark doesn’t have the baggage attached to Gore, I still think that the real soul of this Party lies more in Gore and Dean — long-time and politically effective/successful voices now on the progressive AND public radar. However, I also admit that there is more depth to Clark than he has, to date, been able to demonstrate … and there is still plenty of time for him to do that.

    bottom line: while Clark may not be my personal political wet dream, it still would be a rather enjoyable fantasy with a genuine promise of complete nirvana … 🙂

  • RE: What Analytical Liberal said.

    If Nixon could come back 8 years later and win, so could Al Gore … and Nixon was no fount of charisma.

  • >>if Corzine wins, he’ll get to name his own replacement to serve out the balance of his Senate term

    Maybe Bill Clinton could could take up Jersey residence for awhile…

  • slip kid no more,

    If Nixon could come back 8 years later and win, so could Al Gore … and Nixon was no fount of charisma.

    I respectfully submit that the dynamics of presidential elections has changed signficantly since Nixon lost and subsequently enjoyed a successful come back.

    CarpetBagger,

    thanks for the clarification on Corzine’s seat. Is the current thinking that the seat is safe in 2006 for Dems or is it a “it-depends” situation?

    Analytical Liberal,

    thanks for the response. I, too, may not think Clark is perfect, but I think he can successfully negate the GOPs advantage on National Security/Defense which then allows the discussion to get to domestic policy–which favors Dems. I, too, long for that nirvana…

  • Is the current thinking that the seat is safe in 2006 for Dems or is it a “it-depends” situation?

    Since we don’t know who either of the candidates will be, we’re definitely still in the to-be-determined zone. I can say, however, that New Jersey is generally a reliable “blue” state, especially in Senate contests.

    If Corzine wins, and his successor runs as an incumbent without a significant primary fight, I’d be cautiously optimistic about the race.

  • Understood. Thanks for the insight.

    On a somewhat related note, do you know of any online resources that are critically examining the mid-term elections? thanks in advance!

    On a completely unrelated note, great blog and Ed did a fine job standing in for you over the long weekend–we missed you, but his “voice” did not clash with my carpetbagger expectations. I wonder if other commentors agree. Analytical Liberal? Donald? Others?

  • Edo, I make it a kind of rule to never make more than one post within a given topic.

    Whoops!! Dang.

    Oh, well. Please see my post in the “I’m Back” topic earlier today, that about sums it up.

  • Hi Donald,

    my regrets at enticing you to break a self-imposed rule. D’oh!

    I checked out hte comment on “I’m Back”. I completely agree. Welcome back, CarpetBagger!

  • Edo,

    I agree with your shout out for Ed Stephens. I’ve come to respect his commentary here. Although he at times slipped into his “college professor” mode (of course, I’ve been accused of being too long-winded in my “lawyer” mode 🙂 ), I appreciated some of the wonky data-driven points that can back up our analyses derived from our intellect and our observations of political dynamics and paradigm shifts. Thanks, Ed!!

  • Whomever Corzine picks as his replacement should have plenty of time to get settled–the Republicans are in such a mess in New Jersey right now that Corzine’s replacement will be a HUGE favorite in 2006.

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