As nearly everyone probably knows by now, SurveyUSA has published a massive new poll, ranking each U.S. senator by their approval and disapproval ratings in their home states. It’s the kind of data that poll junkies can chew on for weeks.
There are more than a few ways to break down the numbers. Kevin Drum isolated the senators whose terms will end next year. Chris Bowers highlighted vulnerable GOP incumbents. Others have noted that eight of the top 10 most popular senators are Dems.
But one of the things that jumped out at me was the effect on the Gang of 14, which as you’ll recall, struck a compromise last month on judicial nominations that avoided the dreaded nuclear option.
SurveyUSA took two snapshots to gauge senators’ popularity, one in May, the other in June. Most lawmakers had similar support both months (the average senator saw his or her approval rating go up 1 percentage point). But if you isolate just the 14 senators who signed the deal on judges, something interesting pops up.
The seven Dems fared quite well. Six of the seven Dems had stronger support in June than they did in May. Looking at their specific numbers, the average for the group was an increase of 3.3% in their respective approval ratings and a .4% decrease in their disapproval ratings.
The seven Republicans didn’t do nearly as well. Six of the seven GOP senators lost ground and saw a net increase in their disapproval ratings between May and June. In fact, the average for this group was a 3.1% increase in disapproval ratings, and a .1% drop in approval ratings. Three of the Republicans who fared the worst were Ohio’s Mike DeWine, South Carolina’s Lindsey Graham, and Virginia’s John Warner, all of whom signed onto the compromise.
In other words, most of the Dems in the Group of 14 became more popular with their constituents after helping to strike this deal, while most of the Republicans in the group became less popular. Hmm.
To be sure, this could be a fluke. Overall, Republicans are faltering anyway, so maybe these seven are just caught up in a negative wave against the GOP. Still, I think it’s an interesting development. Conservatives have been insisting for weeks that there’s genuine anger among the rank-and-file against senators they thought could rely on, but who cut short the nuclear option by striking this deal. I largely dismissed this, but maybe there’s something to it after all.