Wednesday’s political round-up

I disagree with jbryan that O’Malley has such a lock on the Governor’s race. While an attractive candidate, Martin really hasn’t done such a great job in Baltimore. O’Malley ran for Mayor partially on crime and homicides have increased in Baltimore during his tenure. Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan is also running for Governor. Duncan has done a real good job of economic development in Montgomery County – he has revitalized Silver Spring and has created a biotech corridor along I-270. Duncan had to deal with the sniper case a couple of years ago and the murderers were apprehended. Montgomery County has place at least three High Schools in the 100 Best High Schools nationwide according to Newsweek. So he cannot be counted out.

As for the Senate race, Steele is a good candidate for the Republicans. Ben Cardin is running as is Mfume. I doubt Ruppersburger will get into the race. Congressman Steny Hoyer is trying to clear the field for Cardin. Steele can beat any of the three. The potentially strongest candidate is Congressman Chris Van Hollen. But Hoyer is trying to keep Van Hollen out, too. This seems to be a case of Maryland Dems saying “We like Cardin and it is his turn to run.” A sure scenario for losing the Senate seat.

Jbryan has a pretty good analysis – from a Baltimore perspective. Unfortunately, Montgomery County and Prince George’s County provide more Democratic votes that either Baltimore City or Baltimore County.

Frank,

Actually, I’m not from Baltimore, nor from Maryland at all, so I don’t think my analysis is being coloured by a Baltimore perspective. Now, my response to your very good analysis.

First, on the governor’s race, I would say this about O’Malley: an executive’s political successes are not always going to be strictly contingent on how much he has accomplished as an executive. O’Malley, in many respects, reminds me of Gov. Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania, formerly the mayor of Philadelphia. He had a truly mixed record as mayor if you look at each issue, but had enough significant success, and did enough to change perceptions within and without the city, that it gave him political strength. The book isn’t closed on O’Malley’s tenure as mayor and his overall record, but I think he’s in a similar position as Rendell was — he’s achieved enough successes and has changed perceptions enough that he is perceived as a successful and qualified mayor, which makes him well positioned to turn around and say that he’d like to continue what he’s doing but for the entire state of Maryland, which hasn’t progressed well enough that it can write off reconsidering its current governor.

Duncan is a good candidate himself, but he doesn’t have the level of personal political qualifications, nor the successful resume — whether completely justified or not — that O’Malley does. There’s also the considerable belief that, since O’Malley was the loyal soldier who gave KKT a free run in 2002, it’s now “his turn” and the nomination is his due. I wouldn’t write that off as a boon to him, here. I’m not counting Duncan out, really, as I think he’ll give a good run in the primary, but ultimately, O’Malley should triumph by a decent margin. And I think the Governor, and his political team, recognize this also: they view O’Malley as the likeliest candidate, else they wouldn’t have targeted him in their pseudo-whispering campaign. That whispering campaign also, I might add, will do little to hurt O’Malley’s standing in partisan Democratic circles; if anything, it will give party loyalists and primary voters the (accurate) impression that O’Malley is the presumed candidate, the one that Ehrlich would rather take down first, and it can prompt a “rally round” effect as he’ll be perceived as the target of unfair slime attacks.

So, not a lock, by any means, but I give him the heavy odds to win the primary, and I think he’ll go on to defeat Ehrlich. Duncan of course has a bright future in politics, but this isn’t the cycle he’ll become governor.

Next, on the Senate race:

Ruppersburger strikes me as far more likely to take the gamble due to political ambition and leap into the race; but Chris van Hollen is pretty ambitious, too, and he may make a go. Both of them are tempted. I don’t think Hoyer, even being the Minority Whip, will be able to sway them from jumping into the race if they see this as their best opportunity. What *may* keep them out is if they decide that Steele is too strong and they’re better off waiting/hoping for Sen. Mikulski to retire soon. Rep. Cardin was smart, declaring his candidacy so early, though, no doubt about that. If it does end up Cardin v. Steele, Steele will have a very good chance of winning… but I stick by my earlier remark that his greatest obstacle will be overcoming Maryland’s heavy Democratic leanings.

The heavily Democratic nature of the state means any Republican candidate starts at a disadvantage, and any Democrat starts with a substantial cushion for potential mistakes (KKT made those in abundance). It takes abyssmal performance on the Dem’s part, and a great performance on the Rep’s part, for the Republican to triumph… simply because of that unfriendly terrain. Cardin is probably banking on his campaign experience — while his is not exactly the most unsafe district, one he has to fight tremendously hard for, he has had to win plenty of campaigns. This, really, is Steele’s first campaign, though. He had never been a candidate for elective office before, and only won in 2002 on Robert Ehrlich’s ticket. What looks great on paper could end up less than great on the campaign trail. We’ll see. But again, for now, my position is to give the favorable odds to the Democrat, unless (by some highly unlikely set of circumstances) that nominee is Mfume.