How low can he go?

June 17, 2005

National Journal’s Charlie Cook wrote a column earlier this week on the floors of the president’s popularity. He argued, persuasively, that so long as Bush’s support among Republicans dropped no lower than 85%, which is where it’s been for nearly a year, the president’s approval rating will not fall below 40% overall, as each of his six predecessors had. It led Cook to argue that Bush, given his steadfast GOP backing, has “a very high floor.”

I think that’s probably true, but the latest New York Times/CBS News poll suggests Bush has just about hit that floor and now runs the risk of falling through it.

Increasingly pessimistic about Iraq and skeptical about President Bush’s plan for Social Security, Americans are in a season of political discontent, giving Mr. Bush one of the lowest approval ratings of his presidency and even lower marks to Congress, according to the New York Times/CBS News Poll.

Forty-two percent of the people responding to the poll said they approved of the way Mr. Bush was handling his job, a marked decline from his 51 percent rating after of the November election, when he embarked on an ambitious second term agenda led by the overhaul of Social Security. Sixteen months before the midterm elections, Congress fared even worse in the survey, with the approval of just 33 percent of the respondents, and 19 percent saying Congress shared their priorities.

Bush is faltering literally everywhere, on nearly every issue, and with nearly every demographic. On Social Security, only 25% of the nation approves of the president’s handling of the issue, 66% of poll respondents said the felt “uneasy” about his “ability to make the right decisions about Social Security,” and nearly half said they disliked Bush’s approach to Social Security more as they learn more about it.

And when it comes to the war, only 37% said they approve of Bush’s handling of the situation in Iraq, down from 45% in February. A strong majority, 60%, now believe the war effort is going badly, and 51% said the U.S. should have stayed out of Iraq altogether.

I honestly never thought Bush’s support would drop this far, this fast. How much lower can his poll numbers go?

I wonder if this wasn’t inevitable. The surge in Bush’s popularity after 9/11 couldn’t last forever, even if Iraq kept it going through the 2004 election. After all, Bush can only ride patriotism and the perception of toughness on terrorism for so long, and now, it seems, people are finally starting to ask the important questions. I think it’ll be important, though, to see his terrorism number go below 50% (it’s now at 52%). If it does, then he’s in real trouble. After all, Americans are generally willing to give their president wide latitude on something as nebulous as terrorism and homeland security (even though he’s doing a lousy job of dealing with both).

I’m not sure if anyone saw this, but Republicans across the board are doing poorly as measured by approval rating. Specifically, Democratic senators have, on average, much higher approval ratings than their Republican counterparts. This may not yet mean much for 2006, but it bodes well for a Democratic rebound if Democrats can keep up the momentum and Republicans continue to over-reach. For more on this, see my take here.

As I’ve also mentioned elsewhere, Democrats really aren’t in such bad shape. They may not have either the White House or Congress, but the Republicans’ majority position is awfully fragile, and Democrats are in a position to strike. Indeed, the weaknesses of the Democratic Party have, in my view, been wildly overplayed — think how a Gore victory (a recognized one) would have altered the political landscape. Democrats now need to focus on providing a viable alternative to Republicans by encouraging internal diversity, fostering an atmosphere of respect, promoting serious policy debates, and working on a coherent message that will resonate with voters. Now’s their chance.

  • How about starting an office pool? What will be the lowest approval rating Bush gets ever? Put me down for 37%.

  • Theoretically, 0%.

    When the cognotive dissonance clears, and the “dead-enders” finally realize that the US isn’t turning into the second coming of the Garden of Eden, I expect the number to hit 32-35%. My mother has already turned on the President about the war in Iraq and if my mother-in-law turns (she’s a steadfast Republican Kool-Aid guzzler), expect one or both of the houses of Congress to change hands.

    Can you say “Chimpeachment?”

  • Somewhere between 30-35%. This is the rock-bottom base who thinks Bush is the Second Coming, anointed by the Lord himself, sitting at the right hand of God.

    I’ve noticed my Republican family doesn’t watch Fox much or listen to talk radio much anymore. They’ve gone from “yeah, he’s my guy!” to “I don’t want to hear about this stuff anymore.” Not sure they’ll make it all the way to hating the guy but it’s something.

  • “Chimpeachment”!! yam, that is outstanding!! Is this your term, or did you get it from some other place? I think I’ll co-opt it if that is alright with you. Too funny AND dead-on. Thanks for a good laugh!!! 🙂

  • Wonderful, yam. Like Analytical Liberal, I’ve already co-opted it. It’s ow on my graph of US deaths in Bush’s Iraq Quagmire (lefthand side, just above the “smoking gun” link).

  • “Chimpeachment”!!

    Every since people started comparing Bush to chimpanzees I started feeling sorry for the chimps, it seems like they’re getting critisism that they don’t deserve.

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