I think we can fairly characterize the Bush presidency as being in a “slump.” Polls, Iraq, Social Security, Congress deciding it’s an independent branch of government, the list of factors contributing to the president’s recent decline goes on and on. The question then becomes what Bush is going to do about it.
According to an interest report in the current issue of Newsweek, Bush hopes to get his agenda back on track by charming Republican senators.
It’s supposed to play host to kings, queens and the leaders of America’s closest allies. Instead the East Wing’s opulent state dining room will entertain a far more powerful group of guests this week: the 55 GOP senators who hold George W. Bush’s second-term agenda in their hands. Along with lunch, the restive Republican majority can expect the president’s staple diet of Social Security and Iraq.
Just six weeks before Congress adjourns for the summer, Bush’s message is simple: don’t go wobbly. Yet for some of his supporters who are seeking an exit strategy at home and overseas, the prospect of another presidential pep talk isn’t enough. “Hopefully the session we have will be an honest conversation,” says South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, “about the mistakes he’s made, about the mistakes we’ve made and about what we can do better.”
Poor Lindsey Graham. Silly, foolish, out-of-touch Lindsey Graham. Has George W. Bush ever had an “honest conversation” about “the mistakes he’s made”? With anyone? Ever?
Graham added, “The time for happy talk is over.” Maybe so, but if he or any of his colleagues expect to go to the East Wing to hear the president acknowledge reality, they’re in for a disappointment. Bush gives marching orders, and occasionally pep talks, but frank discussions about responsibility? I obviously won’t hear the remarks first hand — my invitation seems to have been lost in the mail — but I have a hunch the president won’t be spending time honestly addressing “the mistakes he’s made.”
It got me thinking, though. If Bush and the GOP were serious about getting back on track, what, exactly, would they do?
Conservatives don’t seem to want to admit it, but the Republican agenda is running remarkably low on ideas that Americans actually like. What have they done this year? A credit-card friendly bankruptcy bill that does nothing but hurt the typical American family, and a class action lawsuit bill that moves more cases out of state courts and into federal courts. It’s not exactly a record to run on in 2006.
For that matter, according to congressional GOP leaders, what’s on tap for the rest of this year?
In an e-mail sent to GOP aides and lobbyists late last week, House Majority Whip Roy Blunt’s (R-Mo.) office outlined its list of “priority legislation” on the post-Memorial Day calendar. The list includes gun-manufacturer liability, postal reform and the Central America Free Trade Agreement.
A recent New York Times/CBS News poll noted that only 19% of Americans believe Congress shares their priorities. Are any of these bills likely to boost that number? No.
But what would? Voters might be impressed with federal funding for stem-cell research, but Bush is against it. The public might go for some kind of employment bill, but Republicans have already cut taxes for millionaires several times — and that’s the only way they know how to improve the job market. There’s interest in some kind of immigration legislation, but Republicans are torn right down the middle over how to approach the issue. We’d all like to see conditions improve in Iraq, but Bush has no idea how to make that happen.
My point is this: Republicans — on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue — are in a bit of a pinch. They’re faltering and anxious to improve their public standing, but there’s nothing left in their bag of tricks.
I usually avoid predictions, but I suspect two things are going to happen over the next several months. One, many Republicans will embrace the culture war as the only way to distract attention away from their policy failures. A flag-burning amendment is working its way through Congress, and I imagine this, and other measures like it, will be key to the party’s broader strategy going into the midterm elections. It’s politics by the edge of a wedge.
And two, Bush and the GOP will try to find some way, no matter how irrational, to blame Dems for the government’s problems. We saw a hint of this late last week and I imagine it’ll get worse. The country would be in fine shape, they’ll say, if only it weren’t for Dick Durbin, Howard Dean, George Soros, or the center-left boogeyman of the week.
I don’t think it’ll work, but it’s hard to see where else the GOP can go.