Not exactly the ‘last throes’

June 23, 2005

The White House may struggle in defending Dick Cheney’s assertion that the insurgency in Iraq is in its “last throes,” but at least one leading military official doesn’t mind acknowledging the truth: Cheney’s wrong.

The top American military commander in the Persian Gulf disputed a contention by Vice President Dick Cheney that the Iraqi insurgency was in its “last throes” and told Congress on Thursday its strength was basically undiminished from six months ago.

Furthermore, Gen. John Abizaid told the Senate Armed Services Committee, “I believe there are more foreign fighters coming into Iraq than there were six months ago.” […]

Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan, the committee’s senior Democrat, asked Abizaid if he realized he was contradicting Cheney.

“I don’t know that I would make any comment about that other than to say there’s a lot of work to be done,” said Abizaid. “I gave you my opinion.”

One wonders how the White House might try and punish Abizaid for publicly contradicting Cheney. “Reality-based” admissions of fact are so unwelcome….

The graph of US deaths suggests that Cheney’s “last throes” crack is no more reality-based than was the Bush’s “mission accomplished” brag. In fact, the two-week daily death rate is higher since the Dick’s remark (3.3) than it was following the Shrub’s (2.5).

  • So Abizaid says there are more foreign fighter in Iraq than 6 months ago – so that means there are more foreign fighters in Iraq than there were when the administration invaded right?

  • The “first throes” Administrative lies are worth looking at some more, too. There is an excellent op-ed piece in today’s LA times (free registration), by the journalist behind the Downing Street Memos, Michael Smith, which includes:

    Put simply, U.S. aircraft patrolling the southern no-fly zone were dropping a lot more bombs in the hope of provoking a reaction that would give the allies an excuse to carry out a full-scale bombing campaign, an air war, the first stage of the conflict.

    British government figures for the number of bombs dropped on southern Iraq in 2002 show that although virtually none were used in March and April, an average of 10 tons a month were dropped between May and August.

    But these initial “spikes of activity” didn’t have the desired effect. The Iraqis didn’t retaliate. They didn’t provide the excuse Bush and Blair needed. So at the end of August, the allies dramatically intensified the bombing into what was effectively the initial air war.

    The number of bombs dropped on southern Iraq by allied aircraft shot up to 54.6 tons in September alone, with the increased rates continuing into 2003.

    In other words, Bush and Blair began their war not in March 2003, as everyone believed, but at the end of August 2002, six weeks before Congress approved military action against Iraq. (emphasis added)

    Chimpeachment, anyone?

  • It occurs to me that the war in Iraq is proceeding backwards. First we had “Mission Accomplished.” Next, “Last Throes.” We should expect to see the “Turning Point” ahead, followed by the “Long Road to Glory,” “Initial Failures,” and “Full Deployment.” Perhaps this is what Rice meant by a “generational committment.”

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