State by state, Bush’s support is faltering

June 28, 2005

Polling firm SurveyUSA has been quite the font of information lately, hasn’t it? First it did a poll of all of the nation’s governors, then all of the senators, and today it released data showing Bush’s support on a state-by-state basis.

There are lots of entertaining ways to break down the numbers, but I was most interested in checking these results against the presidential election of seven months ago. Back in November, Bush won 31 states on route to getting 286 electoral votes.

But now, there are 11 states (Tennessee, Arizona, Florida, New Mexico, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado, Arkansas, Iowa, Ohio, and Nevada) where Bush’s disapproval numbers outweigh his approval numbers. In fact, in Ohio and Nevada, both of which Bush won with about 50% support last fall, the president’s support has dropped enormously (Ohio 40-57, Nevada 38-57).

Overall, seven months after winning 31 states, Bush now has a negative rating in 30 states. In fact, if the election were held today, and Bush lost the states in which voters disapprove of his job performance, his support would only generate 165 electoral votes. Even if we just switched Ohio and Nevada, Bush loses with 261 EVs.

I don’t suppose we could get a “do-over” on the presidential election, could we?

Do-overs can happen, but only once every four years. Let’s make sure we get the next one right, eh? 😉

  • I don’t suppose we could get a “do-over” on the presidential election, could we?

    One mulligan a century for Presidential elections? I could go for that…

  • I wasn’t entirely displeased to see Kerry lose, as the problems he would have been left with would have been by and large intractable. Let the public watch a Republican lame duck struggle for 3 plus years with problems he’s caused. Better for realignment.

  • Since the SCOTUS was an incredibly — even unconstitutionally — activist court with Bush v Gore in 2000, why not get them to do it again, as there are still pending some federal court challenges to the 2004 Ohio results? Since it was their screw-up that put this bastard in office and condemned untold millions to needless suffering, they should reclaim their integrity by saying, “oops, we need to fix this.” I’m holding my breath ….

  • I’m with Dillinger.

    If things keep going south, this might discredit the Republican party for a looooong time & teach a few lesson to the Democrats should they get too comfy after they kill the Repubs in the ’06 midterms and impeach the Prez. If Kerry was elected, all this shit would be on his shoulders & the Republicans in Congress would rather see the country go down the tubes than help. Now they can stew in their own juices.

  • Darn right. Kerry would have been in a very tough place, and he wasn’t a great leader anyways. He never should have gotten the nomination, which needs a shale up just like Congress.

  • Why not? The republicans believe in do overs in elections so they should go for this. Examples are the governor’s race in Washington, the recall of Grey Davis in CA and the judicial elections that Rove fought in either Ala or Miss. (is there a difference?). I’m sure there are more examples. I’m all for a recount in FL and OH. I live in OH and these right wing nuts against taxes are fighting school levies that passed in the last election (Mason, OH). Of course, do overs and recalls are only fair if the republicans lose.

  • The SUSA poll points to some trouble for Bush in the solid Republican South.

    Looking at change between May and June the biggest surprise is his drop in the South. He improved May-to-June in four states (AL, AR, FL, VA) dropped in six (GA, LA, NC, SC, TN, TX) and held static in MS. Right now, more disapprove than approve of Bush in 4 Southern states (AR, FL, NC, and TN) and he’s at 48-48 in GA. Amazingly, he’s only one point up in SC; 2 points ahead in LA; and 3 points up in VA and in his home state of Texas. In 2004 Bush won all of these states and did so by a average of 57%.

    Bush is also having problems in his other solid 2004 region, the Mountain West, where many hope Democrats will make gains in 2006 and 2008. Out of eight Mountain West states, more disapprove of Bush than approve in four (AZ, CO, NM, and NV). These four were the closest for Kerry in the region in 2004. Bush won them by an average of 52%. Bush’s May-to-June numbers fell in four states (ID, NM, NV, & WY) and rose in the other five (AZ, CO, MT, and UT). Given the senate races it would be good to see Bush in more trouble in Montana (currently at 56-42).

    In the Midwest Bush is really tanking. He’s got more approving than disapproving in only one state, diehard red Indiana.

    Questions for the Carpetbagger: How valuable is the SUSA poll (is it an automated call poll?), especially this far out from 2006? Second, is there hope in the South?

  • How valuable is the SUSA poll (is it an automated call poll?), especially this far out from 2006? Second, is there hope in the South?

    The SUSA poll is automated, which generally makes me suspicious, but I have to give SUSA a lot of credit. In 2004, this firm was consistently right, even when a lot of other outlets (cough, cough, Gallup, cough) were getting things wrong. With that in mind, I find SUSA pretty reliable and am inclined to believe its numbers.

    As for being so far out from 2006, you raise an extremely important point. There’s a lot that can and will happen between now and the midterms. I consider all positive polls at this point to be encouraging as a morale booster, but not necessarily predictive. At least not yet.

    And hope for the South? Maybe. Time will tell….

  • Zogby did a poll to find out what the results would be if there was another vote for President. The results were 50/50. Very sad.

  • The polls point out a bigger problem for the Democrats. Regardless of how shitty the Republican candidate is, their propaganda machine is somehow able to convince the public that the Democratic candidate is shittier.

    Based on the 6/05 poll, Bush won 11 states where he has a net disapproval rating. And he won Ohio and Nevada where he has double digit net disapproval ratings (almost 20% more of the population in those states disapprove of his job performance). Since his approval rating has dropped only 7-10% since the election, I would guess that at the election Bush would have had significant disapproval ratings (at least 8-10% if not more) in both these states. But he still won both states. Why can’t a Democrat win even when the majority of the public thinks that the incumbent Republican is doing a poor job? Paragraph one is part of the answer, but there must be many more contributing factors.

  • > I don’t suppose we could get a “do-over” on the presidential election, could we?

    Are you kidding? We’re Democrats. 🙂

  • Further analysis:

    State – Net Approval – 2004 Margin

    Utah – 27.5 – 45.54 – Down 18.04
    Nebraska – 22.0 – 33.22 – Down 11.22
    Wyoming – 21.0 – 39.79 – Down 18.79
    Idaho – 16.5 – 38.12 – Down 21.62
    Montana – 11.0 – 20.50 – Down 9.50
    Alabama – 9.5 – 25.62 – Down 16.12
    North Dakota – 9.5 – 27.36 – Down 17.86
    Oklahoma – 9.5 – 31.14 – Down 21.64
    Alaska – 8.0 – 25.55 – Down 17.55
    Texas – 6.0 – 22.86 – Down 16.86
    Kansas – 5.0 – 25.38 – Down 20.38
    South Carolina – 4.5 – 17.08 – Down 12.58
    Mississippi – 4.0 – 19.72 – Down 15.72
    Kentucky – 3.5 – 19.86 – Down 16.36
    Louisiana – 3.5 – 14.51 – Down 11.01
    Georgia – 1.5 – 16.60 – Down 15.10
    South Dakota – 1.0 – 21.47 – Down 20.47
    Indiana – 0.5 – 20.68 – Down 20.18
    Tennessee – 0.0 – 14.27 – Down 14.27

    Virginia – (1.5) – 8.20 – Down 9.70
    North Carolina – (3.0) – 12.43 – Down 15.43
    West Virginia – (3.5) – 12.86 – Down 16.36
    New Mexico – (4.5) – 0.79 – Down 5.29
    Arizona – (5.0) – 10.47 – Down 15.47
    Minnesota – (6.5) – (3.48) – Down 3.02
    Missouri – (7.5) – 7.20 – Down 14.70
    Colorado – (7.5) – 4.67 – Down 12.17
    Hawaii – (7.5) – (8.74) – Up 1.24
    Florida – (8.0) – 5.01 – Down 13.01
    New Hampshire – (9.5) – (1.37) – Down 8.13
    Arkansas – (10.0) – 9.76 – Down 19.76
    Oregon – (12.0) – (4.16) – Down 7.84
    Pennsylvania – (12.0) – (2.50) – Down 9.50
    Iowa – (12.5) – 0.67 – Down 13.17
    Washington – (13.0) – (7.18) – Down 5.82
    Wisconsin – (14.5) – (0.38) – Down 14.12
    Maine – (17.0) – (9.00) – Down 8.00
    Maryland – (17.5) – (12.98) – Down 4.52
    Connecticut – (17.5) – (10.37) – Down 7.13
    Nevada – (18.0) – 2.59 – Down 20.59
    California – (18.0) – (9.95) – Down 8.05
    Ohio – (18.5) – 2.11 – Down 20.61
    Delaware – (18.5) – (7.59) – Down 10.91
    Illinois – (19.0) – (10.34) – Down 8.66
    Michigan – (19.5) – (3.42) – Down 16.08
    New Jersey – (21.0) – (6.68) – Down 14.32
    Massachusetts – (22.5) – (25.16) – Up 2.66
    New York – (27.0) – (18.29) – Down 8.71
    Rhode Island – (28.5) – (20.75) – Down 7.75
    Vermont – (32.5) – (20.14) – Down 12.36

    United States – (9.5) – 2.46 – Down 11.96

    Note: Net approval is the average of May and June; all figures are reported such that positives favor GWB; negative numbers are enclosed in parentheses.

    According to these data, GWB is doing worse in all but two states than he did eight months ago, and he is doing at least twenty points worse in six.

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