Thursday’s political round-up

July 21, 2005

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* How concerned are leading Republicans about Katherine Harris’ Senate campaign in Florida? They’re leaning on her to drop out. Karl Rove and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairwoman Elizabeth Dole have personally and directly asked Harris to forgo the race. She insists she’s staying in and believes she can win.

* Sen. Hillary Clinton continues to enjoy a large lead over her most forbidable Republican opponent. In a Siena College Research Institute Poll released this week, Clinton leads Westchester County district attorney Jeanine Pirro, 57% to 31%. Overall, 60% of New York voters said they have a favorable opinion of Clinton and believe she should be re-elected.

* Speaking of New York, Gov. George Pataki’s favorable rating has rebounded a bit, but should he run for a fourth term, he’s still positioned to lose to state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer. The Siena College poll has Spitzer leading Pataki, 49% to 37%.

* After weighing a Senate campaign, former state Treasurer Barbara Hafer (D) has decided to challenge Rep. Tim Murphy (R) next year. Hafer, who became a Dem last year after deciding that the GOP had been taken over by right-wingers, is a popular figure in the state and is expected to pose a serious challenge to Murphy. Hafer is expected to make a formal announcement closer to Labor Day.

* In a poll released today, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s approval rating dropped to a new low, with only 34% of adult Californians approving of the job he’s doing. The poll was taken before a controversy developed about his hefty side income from fitness magazines.

* With Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-Calif.) retiring next year, interest in his seat now includes literally dozens of San Diego-area Republicans. Former state Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian, state Sen. Bill Morrow, and businessman George Schwartzman are already in the race, former Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.) is strongly considering the race, and over the next few months, the GOP primary ballot should easily reach double digits.

* In Virginia, Gov. Mark Warner (D) seems far more interested in running for president than the Senate, but a new Rasmussen poll suggests Warner could beat incumbent Sen. George Allen (R) next year. The poll shows Warner leading Allen, 48% to 44%. If Warner does not challenge Allen, and nearly everyone believes he will not, and no other top-tier Dem emerges unexpectedly, Allen is expected to win re-election fairly easily. Both Allen and Warner are considered likely presidential candidates in 2008.

Speaking as a New Yorker, I can’t see why Pataki would have rebounded. He sux. Plain and simple. He’s crucified this state. Not that the state dems are much better here.

  • Also in that Washington Times story–it sounds like Linc Chafee could lose a primary challenge from the right, and if that happens the Repubs will essentially cede us the seat.

    Meantime, Rhode Island’s Mr. Chafee, a liberal party maverick in a heavily Democratic state, faces a conservative challenge from Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey, who would be favored in a Republican Party primary. State Republican officials say they, Mr. Rove and the NRSC have also tried to talk Mr. Laffey out of running, urging him to run for lieutenant governor and then seek the governorship.
    “Right now, it looks like Laffey is going to run and that means we could lose this seat,” a party official said.

    Good grief–I thought Rhode Island Repubs were like Hawaii Repubs. i.e., much more moderate than the national party.

  • * After weighing a Senate campaign, former state Treasurer Barbara Hafer (D) has decided to challenge Rep. Tim Murphy (R) next year. Hafer, who became a Dem last year after deciding that the GOP had been taken over by right-wingers, is a popular figure in the state…blockquote>

    Forgive my ingorance, but what state? Any handicapping of the potential matchup?

  • In Virginia, Gov. Mark Warner (D) seems far more interested in running for president than the Senate, but a new Rasmussen poll suggests Warner could beat incumbent Sen. George Allen (R) next year.

    As much as I actually like Warner as a presidential candidate, is there any chance of the Dem leadership convincing him to take on Allen for the Senate seat? Would the carrot of adding him to the 2008 ticket as VP (say to Clark) be enough? That would be ideal from my perspective: another Dem in the senate to stop the insanity from 2006 – 2008 and a really strong Dem ticket for the presidency in 2008; with a strong VP to follow after two terms.

  • Also in that Washington Times story–it sounds like Linc Chafee could lose a primary challenge from the right, and if that happens the Repubs will essentially cede us the seat.

    Wow. What does this mean for our chances of actually taking back the Senate? The count must be getting awfully close. I know Ben Nelson is vulnerable…are there any other Dem Senators up for reelection in 2006 that are vulnerable?

  • are there any other Dem Senators up for reelection in 2006 that are vulnerable?

    Unfortunately, yes. In fact, Ben Nelson is looking pretty strong right now and top-tier Republicans are steering clear of him. These are the Dem seats we need to worry about:

    * Florida — Bill Nelson
    * Maryland — open seat, Sarbanes is retiring
    * Minnesota — open seat, Dayton is retiring
    * North Dakota — Kent Conrad

    As for Virginia, Warner just doesn’t seem interested in the Senate right now. He’s already started establishing ties in Iowa, so I don’t see anyone convincing him to revisit the Allen race.

  • Appreciate the round up on the vulnerable Dem seats Mr. Carpetbagger. Would it be too much to ask for a similar roundup of perceived GOP vulnerable Dem seats?

    Also, is our best hope for keeping Bill Nelson, Ms. Harris? If so, talk about the enemy of your enemy being thine friend…it feels really odd to keep rooting for Ms. Harris.

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