Bob Graham’s resume is second to none. Successful two-term governor, admired three-term senator, expertise on national security issues, and most importantly, popularity in the nation’s most important electoral state — Florida.
In fact, Graham reminds Dem voters about his home state at every opportunity.
“Florida is America’s largest swing state,” Graham says in his stump speech. “I have won five statewide elections in Florida, two as Governor and three as a United States Senator…. and I will beat George Bush in Florida and I will not need the United States Supreme Court to cast the deciding vote.”
On its face, this is a pretty compelling argument. Kerry comes from Massachusetts (12 electoral votes that always go to the Dem), Dean comes from Vermont (3 electoral votes that Bush stands no chance of winning), and Lieberman is from Connecticut (8 electoral votes that will go Dem). Graham is one of three candidates from states that could be competitive in 2004 — Edwards from North Carolina (14 electoral votes) and Gephardt from Missouri (11 electoral votes) are the others — and Florida (27 electoral votes) is easily the most important.
With this in mind, if Graham can’t win Florida next year, his candidacy is toast. Unfortunately, that already appears to be the case.
The Tallahassee Democrat reported today that Bush’s approval rating has slipped in Florida lately, but the state’s voters still favor Bush over Graham. The paper cites a Mason-Dixon Florida poll that shows Bush enjoys a 51%-39% advantage over Graham in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.
Graham has enjoyed broad support among Republicans in his Florida elections, but this poll showed that state GOP voters continue to rally behind Bush.
Making matters worse, Graham’s once-invulnerable popularity in his home state has slipped. The poll pegged his overall favorable rating at 47%. The Orlando Sentinel noted that this is the lowest favorable rating Graham has had in Florida since his first campaign for Senate in 1986, when it stood at 64 percent.
Graham’s campaign will respond — accurately — that Graham fared better against Bush in the Mason-Dixon poll than his Dem rivals. This may be true, but Florida voters hardly know his Dem rivals. These voters probably don’t even know most of the other candidates’ names at this point. They’ve known Graham, however, for decades. Floridians at this point are well prepared to know if they’d prefer Graham to Bush, and apparently, they don’t.
And if you didn’t think it could get any worse for Graham in Florida, there’s also a state AP article out today that explains Graham, who has relied almost exclusively on in-state fundraising for his campaign, hasn’t even locked up Florida Dem donors.
In fact, while Graham has collected $2.3 million from Floridians, Graham’s rivals have taken in $1.9 million. That’s not much of a difference. I don’t have exact numbers, but I suspect if you checked contributions in the state of Vermont, there’s a much bigger gap between Dean and the rest of the field.
So to review, Graham can’t crack the 5% plateau in any poll, he badly trails his serious rivals in fundraising, and his ace in the hole — Florida — isn’t looking promising.
Bob, it’s not too late to drop out of the race. Run for re-election in Florida, keep your Senate seat, and continue serving the people of Florida.