It’s the war, stupid

August 24, 2005

A new Harris poll is out, and it, like every other poll in recent weeks, shows a steep decline in public support for the president.

President Bush’s job approval ratings are at their lowest point of his presidency as only 40% of U.S. adults have a favorable opinion of his job performance and 58% have a negative opinion, according to a Harris Interactive poll.

This is a decline from just two months ago in June when the president’s ratings were 45% positive and 55% negative.

Across the board, this is bad news for pretty much everyone in Washington. Cheney’s approval ratings slipped to 35%, Rumsfeld’s approval ratings dropped to 40%, and the public really hates Congress.

Of course, we’ve heard all of this repeatedly for weeks. Bush isn’t popular anymore — we get it. The Harris poll, however, included data on the public’s top concerns. The results were telling.

Respondents were asked for the two most important issues they believe the government should address. The replies were spontaneous and respondents weren’t offered categories or issues. Less than three months ago, the breakdown looked like this:

1. Iraq — 24%
2. Social Security — 19%
3. The economy — 18%

As compared to the same question from the same polling firm on public opinion now:

1. Iraq — 41%
2. The economy — 19%
3. Health care — 11%

This isn’t rocket science.

How far as public support for Bush’s policies in Iraq dropped? If the Harris data wasn’t telling enough, even the Jingoism Channel is expressing doubts.

You knew it was a bad day for the White House when even Fox News was piling on President Bush’s counselor, Dan Bartlett.

E.D. Hill, one of the “Fox & Friends” morning show anchors, said she thought the Iraq war “was a justified one” but now worries “that there’s not a plan to actually win that ground war.”

“Well, E.D., I can assure you that’s not the case,” Bartlett assured her. Allowing that it’s been a “bumpy process” with “difficult days,” he asserted: “We have the right strategy to prevail.”

Hill was not reassured by this assurance. “I guess I’m not convinced,” she replied.

Join the club, E.D.

From this poll, it sounds like all Dems need to do is present voters with what they want – a plan to get out. If they do, maybe they’ll take back Congress in 06?

  • It’s like a garden hose inserted up someone’s ass — eventually, the body can only hold so much of the Kool-aid before one either has to pull the hose out because of the painful discomfort OR one’s gut and whole body simply explodes.

    Seems like LOTS of Americans have finally reached their “no mas” point. Too bad that it has taken this long. I just hope that the process continues until these Lying.Fucking.Bastards are all out of office, on trial, and in prison — or Hell — I’ll take either one or the other at this point.

  • Am I being excessively paranoid to regard these declining numbers with foreboding?

    When there was an election in prospect, terror warnings came fast and furious on any downtick. Now, he just seems to sink.

    Would the Bushies hype a terror threat? Obviously, they would. Would they allow a terror threat to continue? Osama and Zarqawi live, don’t they?

    Some people in Bush’s Party, have opined that a major terror attack in the U. S. would be the end of the Constitution — I can’t tell if they want a major terror attack for that reason, or not. Really, I can’t tell.

    And, the thing I would most like to know about the poll numbers on Bush’s performance is: is there a prophylaxis, here? Personally, I have always found Bush smarmy and horrible; does the movement in the polls reflect conversion to my point of view? If there were a major terror attack now, would a majority interpret that as a Bush failure? Would they blame Bush for doing a bad job? Or, would they rally behind him?

    I remember Watergate quite well. I thought Nixon was a liar and a crook, but I thought Nixon was a patriot above all. As the noose tightened, Nixon did the right thing(s), and I was confident that all would turn out all right, because I wasn’t really worried that Nixon would, say, stage a coup. As hateful as he was, Nixon had a loyalty to the country. He dumped Spiro Agnew, and appointed the stolid Ford, for example; he knew what was coming. He yielded to the Supreme Court; he knew what was coming. Those were acts of political courage and decency, which strengthened the country, and they were taken at great personal cost. They don’t excuse castrating the war on poverty, bombing Cambodia, the imperial Presidency, or any of the rest.

    The problem is, I don’t know what Bush’s limits, his points of honor, might be. He is a man, who clearly doesn’t not have an appreciation of history. He says he doesn’t care about his “legacy.” And, I don’t know much about the people around him; Cheney, etc. seem increasingly deranged.

    When I see these declining poll numbers, and the worsening prospects in Iraq, in the economy, which drive them, I wonder how Bush will respond to the increasing humiliations, to which he will be subjected. The current regime has been remarkably ruthless in their pursuit of power, and their use of power; how ruthless will they be, in attempting to hang on to power?

    If they thought a terror attack, or the prospect of one, would restore their fortunes, would they hype the possibility? would they fake aborting one? would they let one happen?

    I don’t trust that they wouldn’t, if they thought it would work to their advantage. So, I would really like to know, if the finally disapproving American people would view a terror attack, now, as a failure of Bush policy. Would the mere fact of a terror attack trigger calls for Bush’s resignation? If Republicans began to think that such a scenario was at least as probably as the country rallying to Bush’s side, I would feel a good deal safer.

  • I can’t wait for ’06, if just to see if and what Rove has up his sleeve. Assuming he is not on trial of course.

  • “Am I being excessively paranoid to regard these declining numbers with foreboding?”

    I certainly don’t think you are Bruce. I’m happy to see the poll numbers drop just as an indication that this country hasn’t totally lost it’s hold on reality.

    But the way the administration stays the course and keeps repeating the same crapola and flat out layer’s lies on top of each other to prolong the charade of patriotism is not encouraging. They are on rails. They have a plan which is based on power and money and control. They are like Will Rodgers riding the bomb down in Dr. Strangelove.

    No mistakes admitted, no quarter given, no opportunity left unexploited. I believe they are capable of practically anything if the numbers bring them close to a loss of power.

  • I don’t see what everybody is happy about. Bush said today that the war will go on while he is president. Doesn’t anyone understand that the Bush administration will not stop at Iraq. They are going into Iran,Syria and maybe more.
    The people must stop him! I don’t know that we can, I don’t know how, but he must be stoped! If we have to wait till ’06 it might be too late. If enough backbone is elected to congress next year there might be a chance to end the war in Iraq.
    The people are fickle. If a terror attack were to happen,it might send the poles back the other way.

  • It’s ironic that by punting on their threats to destroy Social Security, Bushco has in effect made it drop off people’s list of primary concerns. That gave a push up the list the Iraq War.

  • I think y’all might be missing the point of right-wing criticism of the Bu$h administration’s conduct of the war. I can’t speak for E.D but others (like Limbaugh) are not pissed because we’re not “winning”, they’re pissed because they don’t think we’re doing enough to win. They’re pissed because we’re not nuking Mecca and kicking enough ass elsewhere, especially in Iraq.

  • Burro…

    That was Slim Pickens as Major “King” Kong riding the thermonuclear bull to oblivion.

    “Well, I’ve been to one world fair, a picnic, and a rodeo, and that’s the stupidest thing I ever heard come over a set of earphones…”

  • The most crucial question of all is being ignored
    by the pollsters, and the obvious followup question:

    1) Was the war justified in the first place?

    and, regardless of the answer to (1), how should
    we proceed now?

    A) Escalate, until we overpower the insurgency
    and bring about stability
    B) Stay the course, until the insurgency wilts and
    we prevail
    C) Enlist the support of the U.N. and develop a
    plan for international cooperation and gradual
    withdrawal
    D) Cut and run

    I am guessing that nearly 2/3 of the American
    people would answer (1) yes, and that a fair
    majority would endorse 2 (A) or 2 (B) , in
    which case there’s not much cause for
    celebrating.

    And I think that’s what the Democratic leadership
    believes – why else are they all behind Bush or
    actually recommending escalation? But why
    can’t we find out what the people think? Why
    don’t the pollsters ask the obvious questions?
    Why are we all shooting in the dark when all
    we have to do is ask the people what they
    think?

    Why don’t the Democrats want to know?

    Someone explain politics to me, because
    I’m baffled.

  • Burro says: “But the way the administration stays the course and keeps repeating the same crapola and flat out layer’s lies on top of each other to prolong the charade of patriotism is not encouraging. They are on rails. They have a plan which is based on power and money and control. They are like Will Rodgers riding the bomb down in Dr. Strangelove.”
    Will Rodgers didn’t ride the bomb down in Dr. Strangelove. That was Slim Pickens. Of course, Will never lived to see Bush as our Dear Leader so he never got to meet a man he didn’t like. The Strangelove citation is the right one though. Parody has become reality. Even the faux cowboy part. Chilling. Unlike Nixon, I believe that Bush & Co. have no understanding of this country’s ideals and have no decency. They have shown over and over that they will never tell the truth, even when it’s easy, and they will stop at nothing to hold on to power.

  • I don’t think 2/3 think the war is justified. 54% in the last Gallop Poll called it a mistake. I think candidates willing to say its time to talk about a timed withdrawal would do well. So why don’t Democrats raise this? Why do we hear that the pros in DC advise their clients to stay clear of the war? When will the leadership get it? You didn’t mention it but the public also gave Dems in Congress low marks. As usual the Base is way ahead and I think the country is as well.

  • richard – I understand what you are saying, but I
    don’t think the poll questions are sufficiently
    probing to distinguish between those that think the war
    is wrong because it is going badly, and those
    that think the war is wrong because it was
    wrong and sold on a pile of lies. I truly believe
    that if the insurgency suddenly waned, all
    would be forgotten, and Bush would be hailed
    as a hero. Nothing succeeds like success, as
    they say, but we just haven’t had any – I think
    that’s what’s bothering the people, and they’d
    turn on a dime if circumstances changed.

    But I would like to know. I still think 2/3 of the
    American people believe that it was right
    to take Saddam out, but that we flubbed
    it. But my point is, regardless of who is
    right or wrong, there is an answer, and all
    we have to do is ask the right questions.

  • hark: politics is a slow-motion dialectic, in which whatever you do now, whatever you say now, can be spun into something else entirely at some point in the future. The cliche is that the pendulum swings as, for every progressive action, there is an equal and opposite conservative reaction.

    There is an array of opinion on the War, and the proportionate size of the opinion groups is less likely to shift significant than that the alignment of those groups into coalitions might shift. The group that matters right now, is the group, which knows things are not going well in Iraq, and does not want our adventure in Iraq to be a total waste, and does not want to make things still worse by withdrawing. That is the group, which can swing from Bush to the Democrats, and in doing so can convert an evenly divided electorate into an overwhelmingly anti-Bush electorate. It is a group, which has largely been with the Republicans, and which has been hostile to liberals for nearly a generation; Republicans have nurtured their hostility to liberalism.

    The Republicans want to provoke the Democrats into active opposition to the war, so that the Republicans can blame the Democrats for a loss of national will as the cause for our abject failure in Iraq. The Democrats need to keep the focus on Bush’s lies, corruption and general incompetence; the stance that the U.S. needs to make more an effort and an effective effort is much more effective with the swing opinion group, because it focuses on Republican corruption and incompetence.

    Once that portion of the population, which knows that things in Iraq are going badly, but wishes that the U.S. would make the right moves to “win”, is firmly anti-Bush, the Democrats will be free to lead an effort to withdraw. But, not until then. And, probably, the Democrats need to win at least house of Congress in 2006, before they can expose the corruption, which is at the heart of U.S. failures in Iraq and the war on terror.

  • “Burro…

    That was Slim Pickens as Major “King” Kong riding the thermonuclear bull to oblivion.”

    Thank’s REArance, Will Roger’s didn’t feel quite right but I went with it anyway. I should’a Googled it.

  • And thanks also to Frak for the correction.

    “Of course, Will never lived to see Bush as our Dear Leader so he never got to meet a man he didn’t like.”

    and a nice save…..

  • How many of the people who disagree with Bush’s handling of Iraq want him to just nuke the place — that the problem with Bush is not his starting a useless war out of petulance and greed, but on his not prosecuting it in a manly and lethal enough way?

    My guess is a third of the Bush ‘opposition’ in these polls is more bloody-minded than you can imagine.

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