Roll Call ran an interesting item (sub. only) today, under the headline, “Bush’s Grip on GOP in Peril?” I don’t know if I’d go so far as to say “peril,” but, at a minimum, the piece makes a compelling case that the president’s standing is at its lowest point since, well, ever.
President Bush’s command over the Republican Congress is showing signs of weakening as a result of the growing unease over the U.S. mission in Iraq, the lack of a definitive plan to overhaul the nation’s Social Security system and rising energy costs.
Complicating matters for Bush is the devastation wrought on the Gulf Coast by Hurricane Katrina, and the subsequent criticism from some local officials of the federal government’s alleged failure to respond quickly enough with relief aide.
It wasn’t supposed to be this way. A month ago, the entire Republican machine was pleased with itself after Bush requested, and Congress delivered, CAFTA, an energy bill, and an expensive transportation measure. No one had ever heard of Cindy Sheehan and the Gulf Coast was anticipating a healthy tourist season. The Bush plan was to come back after Labor Day in full stride, reemphasizing Social Security privatization, and maybe unveiling a piece or two of his pending “tax reform” agenda.
Now, not so much.
Now, the White House must work to shore up support among Republican Members even as it tries to advance Bush’s goal on Social Security, said Senators, senior aides and GOP strategists, all of whom would speak only on the condition of anonymity.
“This is the perfect storm for the president,” said a Senate GOP leadership aide. “We have rising gas prices, patience running thin with the war in Iraq and now Katrina. Coupled with lame-duck status, it is an uphill battle for him.”
Some of this is to be expected. When the president’s approval rating hovers around 40%, and members of his party start looking ahead to midterms, there’s bound to be a little anxiety. But how bad is it?
Republicans are openly criticizing Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq for the first time, Social Security privatization is dead, the repeal of the estate tax isn’t going anywhere, no one knows what to do about gas prices, and Republican lawmakers are hearing plenty of complaints back home from constituents who don’t like what they see in response to the devastation on the Gulf Coast. The White House ability to quickly move major pieces of legislation through both chambers is, I think it’s fair to say, just about gone.
Which leads me to another question — what, exactly, do the Republicans do now? In June, House Majority Whip Roy Blunt’s (R-Mo.) office outlined its list of “priority legislation” items, which included gun-manufacturer liability and “postal reform.” Now, I haven’t any idea what “postal reform” is, but it doesn’t sound like a major agenda item.
It creates an interesting quandary. Bush’s positioning has been weakened considerably, so congressional Republicans are less anxious to do his bidding, even if he had some kind of agenda. Congressional Republicans, meanwhile, are a little short on policy ideas that they’re prepared to get behind.
Katrina will dominate policy discussions for the foreseeable future, but after this crisis has been addressed, I wonder if Republicans have any idea where they want to go.