There are any number of interesting side stories and mini-dramas in DC right now, but the one that may warrant the most attention is watching Republicans scramble, plot, and scheme while trying to figure out how to pay for Hurricane Katrina relief. How it plays out may speak volumes about the GOP’s immediate future.
Over the last week or so, factions have broken out. They have fundamental disagreements, for which there is no obvious solution. They agree that Katrina is going to cost in upwards of $200 billion and they agree that to deal with the costs, they’ll have to take a look at big budget items. Everything else is up for debate.
First up, is the Responsible Caucus. The smallest faction, this group includes a handful of reasonable GOP lawmakers who are in touch with reality enough to know that Congress has to consider scaling back tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. This group includes a couple of House members, including Reps. Joe Schwarz and Vernon Ehlers, as well as Sen. Mel Martinez.
They’ll get support from Dems, but the Republican establishment has already shut them down. The president has said that the Responsible Caucus will not succeed.
Next are the Spendthrifts. A growing and boisterous faction, these guys want to keep the tax cuts as is (and perhaps add to them), steer clear of deficits, and use Katrina as an opportunity to shrink the government by dramatically scaling back federal spending. Led by Sen. Tom Coburn and Rep. Mike Pence, among others, this group has its eyes on Bush’s Medicare expansion legislation (which they never cared for anyway) and the massive transportation bill passed in July.
The Spendthrifts have a few problems. The president is more than a little hesitant to give up major domestic policy initiatives, which could hurt the GOP in midterms; Tom DeLay says there’s no spending to be cut; and the Responsible Caucus knows full well that if Dems get to frame this as “the GOP cut back on medication for seniors so they could leave tax cuts for millionaires in place,” Republicans have a political problem.
And then there’s the other faction: the Clueless.
The Clueless have taken up residence at the White House and haven’t figured out what to do next. They don’t like the Spendthrifts, because the administration worked hard to secure all that federal spending, said it was absolutely necessary, and doesn’t want to go back now. They really don’t like the Responsible Caucus, because they cherish those tax cuts.
So, instead of offering an alternative, they just kind of meander around, waiting for an idea to come to them. They like the idea of spending cuts, but not any of the specifics. (Claude Allen, White House domestic policy adviser, said Friday, “I cannot name any programs that will be cut.”) They like the idea of sacrifice, so long as the wealthy don’t have to give up any of their tax breaks. They like the idea of deficit reduction, so long as it doesn’t require any hard work or tough choices.
How does all this play out? I haven’t any idea. But when Tom Coburn said that Bush has “failed a test of leadership,” I think he was on to something.