Tom DeLay has given up his leadership post, at least for the time being, as his caucus’ rules mandate for a lawmaker under indictment. DeLay hasn’t resigned from Congress and, as far as he’s concerned, he’s planning to resume his duties after his trial.
The impact on the House Republican caucus is entirely unpredictable at this point. Will there be pressure on DeLay to resign from Congress? What about a power struggle among ambitious replacements? If DeLay’s trial drags on past the midterm elections, how patient are Republicans prepared to be?
The strains will likely be considerable.
The indictment means DeLay will be required to resign his leadership post, sparking a potential race to succeed the Majority Leader that could threaten a fragile balance of power within the Republican conference. […]
The announcement today is a major blow to congressional Republicans at a time when their overall approval ratings continue to sag. It also puts the focus back on ethics after a month of media coverage dominated by hurricanes and the flooding in New Orleans.
Even if Hastert & Co. planned for this contingency, today’s indictment could have unpredictable implications.
For example, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if a member or two suggested that DeLay leave Congress altogether and devote all of his time to his legal defense. For House Republicans, it’s probably the least embarrassing and least inconvenient option.
About five months ago, when there were so many scandals surrounding DeLay they were almost hard to keep up with, there was sporadic talk in some GOP circles that DeLay was no longer worth supporting. Rep. Chris Shays (R-Conn.) called DeLay an “embarrassment to me and to the Republican Party.” Not long after, Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.) said it is “probably not the worst idea” for DeLay to step down. About a month later, 10 retired House Republicans, led by former U.S. Rep. Pete McCloskey (R-N.C.), went to Texas to try and recruit a primary opponent for DeLay in his district.
In response, DeLay did what all Republicans tend to do when overcome with scandal — he put his head down and waited for the story to go away. It worked, intra-party strife died down, and DeLay re-solidified power.
Of course, that was before he was facing a criminal conspiracy charge. Here’s a scenario that might be on the minds of some nervous Republican congressional leaders — DeLay is an albatross around their necks and will be a symbol of all that is wrong in GOP Land in 2006. If DeLay resigns from Congress, Texas’ Republican governor can name his replacement, ensuring the seat stays in Republican hands. If DeLay beats the charge, he’s set up with a lucrative lobbying gig anyway. If he doesn’t, well, they’ll visit him in jail.
And don’t forget those who want his job. A Majority Leader opening doesn’t come around very often. Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) has been publicly supportive of DeLay, but he’d likely shed no tears if he won a sought-after promotion. There are a half-dozen Republicans thinking the same thing.
DeLay may have files with dirt on all of his colleagues, which in turn might help him keep the support he needs. But don’t be surprised if the long knives come out.