The Miers nomination and the right

There’s a certain political reality that was hard to escape during John Roberts’ confirmation process — Republicans had 55 seats in the Senate and nary a one was prepared to break party ranks on this nomination. Can the same be said about Harriet Miers? I’m not entirely sure.

About a week ago, the NYT had an item about Senate Republicans’ unease over this nomination. A handful of moderates (Chafee, Snowe) said they were prepared to vote with Dems if Bush’s choice to replace Sandra Day O’Connor was rigidly conservative. There were, perhaps more importantly, a handful of hard-line conservatives (Brownback, Coburn) also expressing their willingness to vote against the nominee unless he or she is sufficiently conservative.

This, alas, was the beauty of the Roberts pick; Bush threaded the needle. I have to assume, by picking someone with hardly any public record at all, the White House thought it pull the same trick twice. I’m just not convinced it’s going to work.

With Roberts, it was a foregone conclusion. Ann Coulter said that “compared to what we know about John Roberts, Souter was a dream nominee,” and one fringe group got an AP feed out of announcing its opposition, but that was about it.

Miers isn’t Roberts. For one thing, Republicans are being asked to swallow hard over the fact that Miers donated campaign cash to a handful of Dems in the 1980s, including Al Gore’s initial presidential campaign, Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas), and the Democratic National Committee.

To appreciate the breadth of conservative concerns, consider the reactions from the right side of the blogosphere, with links pulled from Ezra and Kevin:

* Red State — “I think I’ll let the President fight this battle himself, for now.”

* K-Lo — “[N]ear everyone I’ve talked to this morning feels demoralized (albeit some to differing degrees) with the Miers pick.”

* Bill Kristol — “I’M DISAPPOINTED, depressed and demoralized.”

* John Hinderaker — “A Disappointment.”

* Jonathan Adler — “[T]he GOP base is dispirited by this nomination.”

* Ankle Biting Pundits — “Ugh. This is what we fought for?”

Now, some of you are no doubt thinking that this could be an elaborate ruse. The right feigns disappointment so the left will assume she’s not all that bad. I really don’t think that’s the case here.

The right wanted someone they could count on. Most of these guys will come back to the fold and get in line — that is, after all, what conservatives always do — because they’ll take the leap of faith that Bush wouldn’t let them down with someone who isn’t solid. But they’re genuinely unhappy not to get a known ally like Brown or Owen.

Ultimately, will any of this matter? Could this “unrest” lead actually put Miers’ nomination in jeopardy? It’s too soon to say, but here’s what Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) said last week:

In an interview last week, Mr. Brownback said he would vote against a nominee who was not “solid and known” on cultural issues like abortion, same-sex marriage and religion in public life.

“If the president doesn’t nominate a solid nominee, that is going counter to what he campaigned on,” Mr. Brownback said. And if such a nominee “involves a contentious battle, then let it be.”

Stay tuned.

She *might* be a conservative in the mold of Scalia or Thomas but the only thing they have is Bush’s word on it– many of them are already concerned she could be another Souter. Conservatives want more than rhetorical reassurances that she is a committed conservative, and many of them also think her resume isn’t nearly impressive enough to warrant a seat on the highest court of the land. Frankly, I think that is the rub. Roberts might not have had a paper trail, but he was considered a brilliant legal scholar by both Dems and GOPers and he was considered independent. Miers is anything but independent, is far too close to Bush and doesn’t seem particularly scholarly. (For pete’s sake she said that Bush is the smartest person she has ever met. Is there anyone else on record saying such a ridiculous thing?)

  • Bush has a history not only of cronyism but also of selecting cronies who won’t threaten him by having more competence than he does. The weak selecting the weaker, as it were. What an incredible psychological profile his would be. He drives the country further into ruin by pandering to his own fear of being upstaged. John Roberts was an aberration. With Harriet Miers he’s going back to his incompetent roots.

    I never thought the day would come when I would agree with anything that Michelle Malkin says, but it’s hard to argue with her analysis on this:

    “What Julie Myers is to the Department of Homeland Security, Harriet Miers is to the Supreme Court. (Video of the announcement here via NYT).) It’s not just that Miers has zero judicial experience. It’s that she’s so transparently a crony/”diversity” pick while so many other vastly more qualified and impressive candidates went to waste. If this is President Bush’s bright idea to buck up his sagging popularity–among conservatives as well as the nation at large–one wonders whom he would have picked in rosier times. Shudder.”

    Of course, anyone who upsets the drooling wingnuts to that extent might not be all that bad, but if Miers is confirmed and simply rubberstamps everything Scalia and Thomas say out of loyalty to Bush we’re still screwed.

    What to do? What to do?

  • This is a rundown of the qotes Andrew Sullivan has posted that he pulled from RedState. Personally I think it is sort of funny.

    1. Bush thinks he has people instincts. He doesn’t. Putin?! This is pathetic. Air out of my lungs pathetic. And the thing is, I’m not even sure if the instinct about people we’d hope for is the one he’s looking for. Roe (or any other social issue) is simply not on his front burner. I’ve feared this, and now I’m convinced it’s true. In fact, I think he and Rove are intentionally not placing anti-Roe votes on the Court. Roe stands, both Miers and Roberts uphold it (although upholding restrictions) and it becomes clear we have a 7-2 Supreme Court in favor of Roe. At that point, I vote McCain or even Giuliani (although I don’t donate) and just don’t bother myself with the lost cause on the abortion issue. This is terrible.

    2. Bush lied to us. Let Kos cheer. The post below should not get lost, that her name was on a list of acceptables supplied by the Democrats. Bush is a gutless, abortionist liar. I spit on him. Seriously.

    3. I cannot believe that I ever trusted this man. I am such a fool. I cannot believe that I have been so foolish as to look past the open borders, the excessive spending, the support of moderate Senators over Conservatives, the nation building in Iraq, the twisted bankruptcy “reform,” etc.

    and Sully’s favorite:

    4. could have picked a real conservative. instead, he picks a 60-year-old woman who’s never been married and has never had kids. are we really to believe that she’ll vote to overturn roe? are we to believe that this woman hasn’t had sex outside of marriage over the past several decades? and if she has, hasn’t she been counting on the right to abortion just as other career-oriented women do? bush has betrayed us. i will never again contribute to the republican party.

  • I also think most of these people will fall in line – including Brownback. They are so whipped and/or so blind once they get over their initial reaction and blow off some steam, they will be able to stomach it.

  • It is clear from his picks that the agreement among the 14 centrist Senators has limited Bush’s freedom of movement to nominate justices.

  • It’s a trojan horse. Of course Bush can’t pick someone who is going to sit in front of the Senate committee and say “I will overturn Roe v. Wade”, as the far right nutjobs want. So he picks a crony…someone with no experience, but tons of loyalty. Someone who WILL vote to turn Roe as favor for being nominated, not because she believes its the right thing to do. Same effect though.

  • “Personally I think it is sort of funny.” – ET

    sort of?

    Sort of f’n hilarious I’d say.

    The moist eyes, the wounded look, the slumped shoulders, the cries of betrayal. Ahhh, when bad things happen to bad people.

    It’s a beautiful day in the neighborhood.

  • Comments are closed.