Thursday’s political round-up

October 6, 2005

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* A new Quinnipiac poll shows Rick Santorum slipping even further behind in his bid for re-election. Pennsylvania Treasurer Bob Casey (D) now leads the incumbent 52% to 34%, his biggest advantage to date. Santorum won’t be able to count on Bush to give him a boost — 61% of Pennsylvanians disapprove of the president’s job performance.

* Over the weekend, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) said he would consider the presidential race “next year.” Yesterday, he expanded on those comments, saying, “I think I’ll return to politics,” but adding that it’s too early to say if that will be for the 2008 presidential campaign. “I have some political visions. I don’t know what they are yet, they’re a little foggy,” Giuliani said.

* National Journal’s Hotline reported yesterday that Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) will reverse course and jump into next year’s Senate race against incumbent Mike DeWine (R-Ohio). Presumably, this would set up a primary fight against Paul Hackett.

* Former President Jimmy Carter’s son, Jack Carter, is “very seriously exploring” a challenge to Sen. John Ensign (R) in Nevada next year. The younger Carter has lived in Las Vegas since 2003, where he runs an investment consulting firm. Carter said he “had not planned to run for office,” but was spurred to consider the race after he saw the inept federal response to Hurricane Katrina. Carter is scheduled to meet with top staffers to Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid next week.

* As part of the Republican establishment’s support for Sen. Linc Chafee (R-R.I.), the National Republican Senatorial Committee went negative on his primary challenger, Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey, with a new TV attack ad this week. The ad accuses Laffey of raising property taxes and hypocritically criticizing oil companies after making a fortune selling oil stocks.

* The Wall Street Journal and Zogby Interactive are publishing monthly polling data for all of the nation’s upcoming gubernatorial and Senate campaigns. Fortunately, the WSJ is now making the data available to everyone, including non-subscribers.

Carter is scheduled to meet with top staffers to Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid next week.

I thought Reid had reportedly agreed to support Ensign. Or was that just some bizarre rumor?

And thanks for the WSJ/Zogby tip. Exactly the kind of thing I was looking for. You rock, Mr. Carpetbagger.

  • I thought Reid had reportedly agreed to support Ensign.

    Sort of. Reid saw a few months ago that there were no top-tier Dems interested in taking on Ensign. The party could have aggressively tried to recruit one, but a) Reid has a good working relationship with Ensign; b) Ensign didn’t work too hard to defeat Reid; and c) Reid figured it wasn’t worth the effort because Ensign looked like he’d win anyway.

    As the Senate Dem leader, Reid would never officially support a Republican senator, but Reid essentially announced, “Let’s focus our attention elsewhere.”

    And thanks for the WSJ/Zogby tip. Exactly the kind of thing I was looking for. You rock, Mr. Carpetbagger.

    Right back at you, Edo.

  • Very interesting polling data there, especially on the senatorial matchups. If only Zogby were a more reliable pollster… (his record in 2004 and 2002 was pretty terrible; he was way off).

    I’d say the most interesting result, by far, is that WSJ/Zogby is currently giving Paul Hackett an 8 point lead over Mike DeWine. I think that’s too high, but okay. He’s also giving Amy Klobuchar and Patty Wetterling leads over Mark Kennedy — I’m skeptical of that one. Talent edges McCaskill by one point, Harold Ford Jr. is way behind, Cardin is slightly over Steele.

    Zogby also includes some potential matchups — the two notable ones are Herb Kohl vs. Tommy Thompson, in which Kohl is ahead only by a point; and Tom Kean Jr. leading both Rob Andrews and Bob Menendez but trailing Richard Codey. Thompson is almost certain not to run, but as Kean Jr. has sought higher office before, it’s very likely he’ll make a go at the Senate seat this time around. Of course, it’s essential to point out that the Democrat will (likely) be starting with the advantage of a one-year incumbency, which would boost both Menendez and Andrews’ fortunes. It’s interesting to note Codey’s popularity, though.

    Why Zogby is polling Texas and not Rhode Island is a mystery completely lost on me. Kay Bailey Hutchison is well beyond simply safe, while Lincoln Chafee’s seat is actually competitive. I’m clueless here. And New York but no Montana? Come on, Zogby…

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