Karl Rove has not yet been indicted. We don’t know if he will be indicted. We don’t even know for sure if he’ll resign — or even be pardoned — if charges are brought against him. But if we didn’t engage in a little baseless speculation about what the political world would be like if Rove was forced from the West Wing, we wouldn’t have any fun at all.
Slate’s John Dickerson recently explored what would happen if “Bush’s Brain is removed.” There were a couple of points that stood out.
When a senator or Cabinet official gets a call from Karl Rove, he makes time to take it. Only Dick Cheney has more throw-weight as a stand-in for the president. Rove also knows that Washington shiatsu requires finesse as well as power. He knows where the political pressure points are found: what member needs what program in his district; what staffer can undermine the efforts of a recalcitrant Cabinet official, and which lobbyist needs to be invited to the Christmas party. […]
George Bush and Karl Rove came to Washington in 2000 to launch not only a presidency but a Republican revolution that would keep the GOP in power for a generation. During the off-year election in 2002, the two gambled by sending Bush to campaign in close races. It worked: They picked up congressional seats, reversing the historical trend that the party in control of the White House loses seats in its first midterm election. Now the Bush-Rove dream is in big trouble. The president’s approval ratings are at their lowest level, and a recent poll showed that by 48 percent to 38 percent of Americans would prefer that Democrats control Congress.
It’s not about policy (Rove is hardly an expert); it’s not about counsel (Bush can always re-read Harriet Miers’ correspondence if he needs an ego boost); it’s about using and keeping power. That’s where Bush needs Rove and it’s where the president will suffer if Rove has to go.
Even without an indictment, the scandal has already undermined Rove in this regard. He’s not as feared on the Hill; wooed candidates feel emboldened to reject his demands; and his word alone is no longer enough to convince his base about the merit behind a Supreme Court nominee.
Indeed, the situation is so dire, the White House is already leaking word about Rove’s would-be replacement.
With Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove having just made his fourth appearance last week before the federal grand jury looking into the outing of CIA operative Valerie Plame, some worried White House insiders are now talking about who might replace him if he becomes entangled in a criminal inquiry. Topping the list: lobbyist, former Republican Party chairman, and judicial shepherd Ed Gillespie. The cofounder of the powerhouse Quinn-Gillespie public relations and lobbying firm, he was called on to handle much of the effort to get John G. Roberts confirmed in his post as chief justice of the United States and has stayed on to address conservatives’ objections to Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers.
The guy leaves the grand jury room and within hours, his colleagues are dishing to U.S. News about his replacement? Oh, how the mighty have fallen.