Going nuclear

November 1, 2005

I’ll admit, I’ve been feeling a little discouraged about Sam Alito’s Supreme Court nomination. To defeat him on the Senate floor, Dems would need to keep the caucus together (no easy task) and peel off six Republican votes. I’m counting moderate GOP heads and I’m nowhere near six.

To defeat him via filibuster, Dems would need to be able to overcome the nuclear option (yes, it’s back). It doesn’t look like they’ll have to votes to win that fight either.

It seems likely that, in the end, Republicans will not only confirm this far-right high court justice, but in the process, rig the rules so that judicial filibusters are impossible forevermore. Then I read something Kos wrote, and I felt a little better.

[G]iven the tenuous hold on power of the Republican Party, do Republicans really want to ditch the filibuster? Because it won’t be long before Democrats retake the White House and Congress. And it sure will be nice to need just 51 votes to pass legislation and confirm nice, solid, liberal judges.

I say test the GOP. If we don’t use the filibuster out of fear they’ll pull the nuclear option, then there is no practical filibuster in existence anyway. Force them to pull the trigger. Let’s see just how confident they are in their “permanent majority” status.

Because the way things are going for Republicans, it won’t be long before Democrats reap the benefits.

This is a very good point. John McCain, who’s against the nuclear option, has said for a long while that he’d support the effort if he knew Republicans would be in the majority forever. But not only is the GOP’s status not permanent, it’s looking shakier all the time.

The scenario isn’t all that perilous. If Dems filibuster Alito and Republicans lack the votes to pass the nuclear option, Dems win and Bush will have to start over. If Dems filibuster and the nuclear option succeeds, Alito makes it onto the court, but the filibuster for judicial nominees will be gone and the next Dem president will certainly appreciate it.

What’s important is that Dems keep their priorities straight. Matt Yglesias makes an important point on this subject: judges are more important than procedures.

[T]he worst possible outcome here is one in which moderate Democrats allow Alito on to the bench in order to preserve the filibuster — a re-run, in other words, of the original “Gang of 14” deal. If Alito winds up on the Supreme Court, the best possible way for that to happen would be a way that also eliminates the filibuster rule. If the filibuster rule is to be maintained, then the best possible way for that to happen would be one that keeps bad judges off the bench.

I haven’t heard any remarks to the contrary, but Dems can’t shy away from taking on Alito because they’re worried about maintaining the filibuster. That’s just crazy.

Just to be clear, I’m not welcoming the nuclear option; I still think it’s an outrageous abuse. I am saying that Dems should make every effort to block Alito. The Republicans will no doubt threaten, “If you block him, you’ll lose the ability to filibuster judges in the future.” Given the choice, Dems should do it anyway.

I have no doubt Alito will be confirmed. No way do Dems hold onto all their people and I doubt we will have 6 (or more) courageous moderate Republicans. I would be surprised with even one.

Those supposedly moderate GOP Senators have been totally cowed. Sure the administration is weak, sure Frist is a hack and weak, bu that doesn’t mean that moderate GOP Senators will use that as an excuse to use the spines God ’em.

  • I actually agree with the post. If not this guy, who?

    The important thing is to be as effective as possible during the confirmation process. Let mainstream America get a glimpse of just what a whack job this guy is, then oppose him on specific principles, the most important being that he is a ‘judicial activist who twists the laws congress passes’.

    Will he get confirmed? Probably. Will the Fillibuster get nuked, possibly. But so what? If they are going to happen, they will happen anyway. Let the GOP push through a psycho, look like over-reaching bullies, and ride indictments to ’06…

    After all, the current DEM strategy appears to be, let the GOP be what the GOP is and reap the benefits of not being obscenely corrupt and whacko.

    -jjf

  • I completely agree with Yglesias: the argument in some ways gets even better to take the American people if it is tied to the Nuclear Option. I have not seen any polling that supports the Nuclear Option. This is a great time to use the filibuster and take it to the masses.

  • Well if the Republicans get rid of the Filibuster and then, somehow, a miracle occures and the Democrates take control of Congress the Republicans won’t be able to use the filibuster against the Democrates. But even though the it was the Republicans who wanted the filibuster gone in the first place they will use their propaganda machine to spin the story right around and pretend the Democrates got rid of the filibuster and guess what – the public will believe them.

  • Isn’t this just the reason the Dems wanted to preserve the filibuster, for the Supreme Court? Give Bush his Edith’s and his dinosaur lunatics on the Circut courts because teh Supreme Court can overturn their rulings on the grounds that this is not the 16th century and we are not a theorcracy. We probably cannot stop Alito anyway. When he is confirmed and hea nd Roberts start eroding teh right to choose, hanging the ten commandments in schools, allowing the formation of the secret police etc. at least Dems can say they opposed him and Bush and the Repubs ran them over. Let them do their Neocon thing because mot people disagree with it. They will lose in the long run.

  • The public has consitently polled to favor the Dems checking Bush on his nominations. And as has been noted above, the public has also consistently polled against the nuclear option.

    Time to force their hand. If the Dems say the right things (and there is plenty positive–particularly regarding the rights of the common working man and woman–to say against this man, do the right things, and end up fillibustering this nomination, Dems will not be hurt. In fact, looking like they have a spine on something may actually help dramatically. Going nuclear, the GOP will look like a bunch of sore losers/hacks at a time when they are weak and the public is just catching on to that fact and many of the issues surrounding that weakness. Whose leadership will look strong in this scenario? Not the GOP.

  • Filibuster – go for it!

    It’s time we took a good hard look at what the Supreme Court is really there for, and make some changes when we take power again.

  • Look, the nuclear option is just a political cudgel that Democrats allow the GOP to beat them over the head with. It will be threatened for EVERY JUDICIAL NOMINEE until the Dems force the issue. Make them put up or shut up. If the GOP wants to rid the Senate of the filibuster (in this case for judicial nominees but that’ll soon spread) then make them do so in a high-profile and public manner. Only then will the Dems be able to move on without being beat over the head with the nuclear option tactic.

    I can guarantee that this will be raised again and again until either the Dems win back the Senate or it’s invoked.

  • lets be clear the nuclear option is illegal and against the rules of the senate. Even implementing it is against the very rules of Senate.
    If we want the dems to fight, we need to make it clear that it is indeed illegal. Lets get all the bloggers on board with that part….

  • Fight him. Fight hard. Filibuster if we must (we will). No matter what happens, the American people are not for this type of judge and are not for the elimination of the filibuster. We already know that. So the harder they fight for him, the less elections they will win in the future.

  • Pretending democrats will retake the house, the other house and the senate without any real change in their political game is just the kind of idealistic junk I associate with the Kos. Democrats are losing the races they’re in right now in the middle of the scandal, how are they going to face the Rove dirty politics machine?

    No decent candidate for president, no clinton doesn’t count. Very sparse cashflow for candidates right now. Bad strategy and worse tactics.

    We can’t let ourselves sink into this feel good mindset. Now is the time for change, within the party and the country as a whole. Hold democrats accountable. It works. Look at Reid’s actions right now.

  • “John McCain, who’s against the nuclear option, has said for a long while that he’d support the effort if he knew Republicans would be in the majority forever.”

    The guy is a prick and an asshole.

    But at least he buggers himself honestly in public spaces.

  • Absolutely fight this one for all it’s worth – which won’t produce a victory now, but will reap enormous benefits just shortly down the road. Let the Republicans strip over half the electorate of a right they thought they’ve had since 1973. Aside from fear of gay marriage (eek!), Roe is the only thing which has won Republicans any elections … once it’s gone, so will they be. And very good riddanc.e. I also love the idea of them changing the Senate rules; the only people who every used the filibuster during most of my life were Southern racists.

  • Yeah, filibuster away!

    For the past five years we’ve watched the majority steam-roller over the minority. Spending another three years waiting to be continually flattened isn’t going to get us anywhere. If there’s anyone left on the Republican side of the Senate with any intelligence, Reid’s move today should remind them of the reasons why the majority usually finds a way to work together with the minority. But, if the majority needs to re-learn this lesson, well, we’ll just have to teach it to them all over again. Life in the Senate will become a complete hell, and its business will come to a standstill. In the end, the American people won’t stand for it, and they’ll elect a new Senate.

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