If yesterday produced one big winner — outside those whose names were actually on ballots — it’s outgoing Virginia Gov. Mark Warner (D). In fact, let the Warner ’08 hype begin in earnest … now.
Tim Kaine tied himself to Warner, telling Virginia that if they’ve liked the last four years, he’ll carry the progress forward for four more. And because Virginia voters responded to the Dem message, just a year after backing Bush by a wide margin, Warner’s stock is soaring today.
“The real asset that Kaine had was this rather astonishing popularity of Warner,” said Merle Black, a professor who studies Southern politics at Emory University.
George Mason University professor Mark J. Rozell agreed. “I think to a large extent [the story] is the Warner influence,” said Rozell, who has closely followed the race. “He created the circumstances for a Democrat to win in a Republican-leaning state in the South.”
In one recent poll, Warner’s approval rating came in at 80%. For a Dem in a red state, who raised taxes, that ain’t bad. Yesterday was a test of that popularity — and Warner passed.
“Not only did Warner elect Kaine, he won the first primary of the 2008 presidential race,” said [Larry J. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia]. “He’s proven that he can win — and transfer winning — in an area Democrats need to win the presidency back.”
On a related note, Virginia has two likely presidential contenders. Gov. Warner clearly fared well, but Sen. George Allen (R), considered by some to a ’08 frontrunner, did not. Kilgore recognized Bush’s faltering support and generally kept his distance from the White House during the campaign, but embraced Allen’s support with both arms and appeared with him repeatedly across the state. In this sense, it was Warner vs. Allen in a reliably Republican state — and Warner came out on top.
A moderate Southern governor who knows how to win in a “red” state, knows how to garner support from Republicans, has proven his coattail strengths, and who manages to be pro-choice without alienating social conservatives. Sounds like a rationale for a presidential campaign, doesn’t it?