Tuesday’s political round-up

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* With Duke Cunningham resigning in disgrace yesterday, there’s a vacant House seat in California’s right-leaning 50th congressional district. The seat was going to be open anyway — Cunningham had already said he wouldn’t run for re-election — but the timetable has now moved up considerably. Under California law, Gov. Schwarzenegger has 14 days to call a special election, which must occur within 120 days. The trick is, the clock starts when the governor’s office is formally notified in writing of the vacancy, and no one is sure when that’ll happen. State officials said yesterday the election will be held as early as late January or as late as April.

* As for who’ll run, likely Republican candidates include state Sen. Bill Morrow, former U.S. Rep. Brian Bilbray, and former Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian, all of whom indicated yesterday that they will probably run. As for Dems, our friend Francine Busby is gearing up for the race. At least on the GOP side of the aisle, the field could swell considerably in the coming weeks.

* Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard (R) may have been absent from Michigan’s Senate race for six months, but his re-entry has him leading the GOP pack. In a new EPIC/MRA poll out today, Bouchard leads the Rev. Keith Butler among Republican primary voters, 27% to 12%. One thing hasn’t changed — both fared poorly in a head-to-head match-up against incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D), who enjoys a 20-point lead.

* In Nebraska, Sen. Ben Nelson (D) continues to enjoy big leads over his most likely Republican rivals. In the latest Rasmussen poll, Nelson leads former Ameritrade executive Pete Ricketts (R) 52% to 29%, and is ahead of former state GOP chairman David Kramer 57% to 25%. Overall, Nelson enjoys a 70% approval rating among Nebraskans.

* If Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) decides to run for a second term, he has an uphill climb ahead of him. A new State House News poll shows Attorney General Thomas Reilly (D) leading Romney in a head-to-head match-up, 52% to 36%. Secretary of State William Galvin also leads Romney, 46% to 41%.

* And in primary calendar news, New Hampshire Democrats have proposed a plan that would leave Iowa and New Hampshire in their respective slots in 2008, but would closely follow them with contests in states with more diverse populations. Critics note that this sounds a lot like the status quo (in 2004, the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary were followed a week later by voting in six states.) The commission is scheduled to meet Dec. 10 to make its final recommendation.

In the latest Rasmussen poll,

Can anyone help me understand why Rasmussen shows such relatively strong numbers for Bush? I know that 45% approval rating is not “strong” in an absolute sense, but when compared to the sub 40% numbers in virtually every other poll, it seems like an outlier. I feel like there is something I’m missing. Any insight is most appreciated.

  • RE: San Diego, if I’m getting all this right and Cunningham was in office for 16 years, he is in essence the Republican party of that district. In terms of advertising for any Democrat challenger, making that equation often and loudly will resonate loudly with anyone whoever voted for the clown or whoever wrote a check to the Republican party there. I guess what I’m trying to say is that if I was a Republican in San Diego, I’d be pissed and embarassed, and while I may not stoop to vote for a Democrat, I may just sit this one out.

    Nevertheless, a Republican will win the district, but if the Democrats were smart they’d just paper the city with posters that said “$2.5 Million – That’s what your last Republican congressmen decided his salary should be. What will your next one decide?”

    Or a simpler way to put it, stand upwind of the shit pile with a fan.

  • Re: San Diego – US Rep. Dist. 50

    Cunningham had only 58.5% of the vote in 2004, pretty sad for an 8 term incumbant. My Rep. got 80.7% of the vote (Jim McDermott, 7th Dist.). So this is definately in play.

  • Columbus mayor Michael Coleman has dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination for governor of Ohio. U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland is now the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic nonimnation. Ken Blackwell currently leads Jim Petro and Betty Montgomery on the GOP side.

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