Looking back at the 2005 State of the Union address, the speech was a little thin in the “new ideas” category. A lot about the war, a lot about Social Security, a few words about tax cuts, and that’s about it. The 2004 SOTU was even worse — it included the infamous “weapons of mass destruction-related program activities” line, Ahmad Chalabi by the First Lday, and the only new idea was Bush’s heartfelt opposition to steroids in baseball.
Since then, Bush’s standing has fallen considerably and his agenda has stalled. What can we expect from the vaunted Bush political machine for the coming year? What will the party that allegedly won the “war of ideas” present to the nation? Not much.
The plan is to make January a critical month in what the President’s aides hope will be a turning-point year. The White House expects a quick victory on Bush’s Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito, and the State of the Union speech will nod to big goals. But when it comes to fresh and concrete ideas, the list of what Bush will actually try to accomplish in 2006 is so modest that one bewildered Republican adviser calls it “an insult to incrementalism.”
White House advisers tell Time that the agenda for 2006 is in flux and that senior aide Karl Rove is still cooking up ideas. But the initiatives they have settled on sound more like Clinton’s brand of small-bore governance: computerizing medical records; making it easier for workers to take their health benefits with them when they leave a job and — an idea that captured Bush’s imagination in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina — giving a boost to Catholic and other private schools as an alternative for inner-city children. While Bush still hopes to sign an immigration bill by summer and plans to talk a lot about the subject next year, his program to offer temporary legal status to illegal immigrant workers remains a tough sell with the conservatives in Congress.
Social Security privatization is out because everyone hates it. Bush likes his sweeping “tax reform” ideas and changes to federal immigration policy, but he faces intense skepticism in Congress on both ideas — from both parties.
So, what is the White House left with in terms of a policy agenda? A medical-records policy championed by Hillary Clinton, a take-your-health-care-with-you policy that Bill Clinton worked on in the ’90s, and a school voucher plan that Bush had to abandon in 2001 — when he actually had some political capital to invest.
Did Rove & Co. run out of ideas? Or do they feel too politically weak to push a more aggressive agenda?