Republican talking points have insisted for months that ethical and legal problems facing GOP lawmakers may be fascinating to political junkies and inside-the-beltway observers, but Dems shouldn’t get their hopes up about this being a campaign issue in 2006. There was limited proof to bolster the talking point, but that was the Republican story and they were sticking to it.
Taegan Goddard, however, noted an item written by GOP media strategist Patrick Hynes, however, that suggests the party’s internal numbers undermine the notion that “regular voters” don’t care about the scandal-plagued Congress.
No fewer than four Republican members of Congress in “vulnerable” seats have received recent internal polling data that shows “a Tom DeLay effect” that appears to give “any Democrat” on the ballot question an average of 10 percentage points against the incumbent. If this information isn’t troubling enough, consider the fact that these four Republicans are of the “cut and run” variety, and in no way loyal to Republican leadership to begin with.
In one such district, Tom DeLay has name identification over 75% and more than half of those respondents view him unfavorably. These data swim against the conventional wisdom among Republican strategists in Washington, which heretofore had held that the DeLay problems were little more than “inside baseball” and would have little impact out there in the hinterlands.
And what’s the number one reason why Independents who were polled react negatively to Tom DeLay? “The culture of corruption”: Nancy Pelosi’s shopworn phrase.
Despite firm denials to the contrary, I understand the subject of these polls came up at a recent House Republican Conference meeting, with a number of members expressing serious alarm about the GOP’s prospects in 2006.
Hynes, being a solid DeLay backer, recommends that Republicans not worry too much about the negative polls and ignore the remaining moderates. Hynes said he views the data as “a gut-check for Republicans in the House.”
I obviously look at the GOP from a far different perspective, but I think the point about the gut-check is probably true. Republicans will have to decide what (and how much) they’re willing to sacrifice while backing a far-right leadership that’s come under fire for multiple scandals.
If they embrace a “stay the course” attitude while vulnerable GOP incumbents start to get tagged by the culture-of-corruption charge, 2006 might prove to be pretty interesting.