A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll was released late yesterday, showing Bush’s approval rating soaring all the way to 39%, from 38%. (An MSNBC headline, which is no longer online, described this as Bush getting “a boost” in popularity. I’d call it a “rounding error,” but I’m not a national cable network.)
But even more important than just the latest job-approval numbers is the breakdown among age demographics. The WSJ’s John Harwood has an interesting take on the poll results today, paying particular attention to the fact that elderly voters are ones Bush is loosing the fastest.
In a period of broad-ranging public discontent, that among senior citizens stands out as most worrisome for Republicans aiming to keep control of the House and Senate in the fall.
“They’re a pretty cranked up bunch and they’ve got to be handled with enormous care by incumbents,” says Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who helps conduct the Journal/NBC survey. So far, adds his Democratic counterpart Peter Hart, “the Bush administration has done more to alienate them than to gain their support.”
The results can be seen in Americans’ attitudes toward Congress 11 months before Election Day 2006. By a 65%-19% margin, Americans age 65 and above disapprove of the performance of Congress; those under 65 are also negative but less lopsidedly, 58%-27%. Moreover, senior citizens say by 47%-37% that they want Democrats rather than Republicans to win control of Capitol Hill. Those under 65 prefer a Democratic victory by a narrower 45%-39% margin.
Interesting. According to the 2004 exit polls, Bush beat Kerry by most age groups, but did the very best among those 60 and over. Now, those same voters disapprove of Bush by wider margins than any other age group.
This is more than just poli-sci trivia. As Harwood noted, voter turnout among senior citizens is traditionally higher than anyone else — particularly in the midterm cycle.
Bush, in other words, couldn’t have picked a worse age group to annoy.