For whatever reason, Bob Graham hasn’t faced the same problem John Edwards faced, though both are in the same boat.
Edwards’ Senate term ends next year while, at the same, the North Carolinian seeks the Dem nomination for president. Edwards would have enjoyed waiting to decide for certain which to choose — using the Senate seat as a back-up choice should the presidential campaign not work out — but time wasn’t on his side.
Other candidates who wanted to mount serious campaigns for the seat wanted to get started. The longer Edwards waited to decide, the harder it would be for them, especially as the state GOP began to get organized for the race. State and national party leaders also leaned on Edwards for a choice, because Dems desperately want to hold onto every possible Senate seat next year. If someone else would be the Dem candidate in North Carolina, he or she needed to get started right away.
Edwards made it official two weeks ago, saying he has ruled out running for re-election to the Senate so as to concentrate all of his attention on the White House bid.
Graham and Florida Democrats face an identical problem, but the Florida senator and former governor does not appear ready to make a definitive choice. This can’t last much longer.
Florida is the most important political state in the Union. California, Texas, and New York may have more people and electoral votes, but each has a political track record that makes them fairly predictable. Dems don’t expect to compete statewide in Texas, and the GOP can’t fare much better in New York or California.
Florida, meanwhile, is split right down the middle.
If Graham were to drop out of the presidential race today and devote all of his attention to running for re-election to the Senate, he’d stand a pretty good chance of winning a fourth term. He’s still popular in his home state, has broad appeal, and tremendous name recognition.
Without Graham in the race, it’s anybody’s guess how the race will turn out. Already four well-known Republicans have expressed a strong interest in running for the seat — Rep. Dave Weldon, state senator Daniel Webster, Florida House speaker Johnnie Byrd, and former Rep. Bill McCollum — though Bush’s HUD Secretary Mel Martinez rejected Karl Rove’s pleas and decided to skip the race (presumably to run for governor in 2006). Four equally-strong Florida Democrats — Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas, Rep. Alcee Hastings, Rep. Peter Deutsch, and former education commissioner Betty Castor — want to run but are waiting for word from Graham.
For his part, Graham appears to simply not know for certain what to do. He’s last or next to last in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina polling. His fundraising is going poorly. As pollster John Zogby recently told the Miami Herald, “He’s got a great résumé, gray hair, all over, not just around the temples. He’s the ideal mature, Southern candidate. But something’s just not clicking.”
Not only is the campaign not going well for Graham, it doesn’t appear likely that it’s going to get any better.
But he continues to be coy about his plans. While Edwards was put in a position where he had to make a choice, Graham refuses to make a definitive announcement.
When asked by reporters recently if he might consider running for re-election in the Senate, Graham said, “We’re focused on being the 44th president of the United States.”
That’s fine, but it isn’t an answer.
How long can Graham realistically push this off? Maybe another month, tops. Some Florida Dems, including Penelas and Deutsch, have already begun raising money for their respective Senate campaigns. Both realize, however that they’ll need considerable funds for a statewide race in Florida, and potential donors are hesitant because they want to know what Graham will do.
With his campaign going no where fast, I can only hope Graham drops out soon. His chances of keeping his Senate seat are strong and he has virtually no realistic chance of winning the Dem presidential nomination. From the national party’s perspective, we need a strong statewide candidate to keep Florida competitive at a presidential level in 2004 and Graham’s popularity in the state would probably mean one fewer Senate race to worry about.
As Mary Lynn F. Jones wrote in The American Prospect a couple of weeks ago, “Graham can do so much more for the Democratic Party by focusing on a race he is likely to win. With control of the Senate so close, every seat counts. If the Democrats control the Senate in 2005, they’ll be able to push along the priorities of a Democratic president or stymie the Bush administration’s agenda. The last two years have shown just how much it matters which party controls the Senate. That’s why we need Bob Graham to be there.”