Newsweek is first out of the gate with a national poll that includes Wesley Clark as a Dem candidate, and the former general will certainly be pleased with the results.
According the poll, Democrats and self-identified independents who lean Democratic were asked which of the Dem candidates they’d like to see get the nomination. The results were as follows:
Wesley Clark — 14% (n/a in July)
Howard Dean — 12% (no change from July)
Joe Lieberman –12% (down from 13% in July)
John Kerry — 10% (no change from July)
Dick Gephardt — 8% (down from 14% in July)
Al Sharpton — 7% (up from 6% in July)
John Edwards — 6% (no change from July)
Bob Graham — 4% (down from 7% in July)
Carol Moseley Braun — 2% (down from 3% in July)
Dennis Kucinich — 2% (no change from July)
Certainly, for Clark fans, this is pretty huge news. This was a poll conducted in his first and second full days as a candidate, and according to Newsweek, he’s already the frontrunner. Whether you like Clark or not, it’s an impressive way to get started.
Now, these results may be a little askew. The margin of error is +/- 6%, which effectively means the top five candidates (Clark, Dean, Lieberman, Kerry, and Gephardt) are enjoying similar support. Plus, Clark was certainly enjoying new-found attention from the hype surrounding his Wednesday announcement speech.
Regardless, the poll demonstrates that Clark enters the race as a top tier candidate. Oddly enough, Clark doesn’t appear to take a lot of support from any single candidate. Dean, Lieberman, and Kerry, for example, didn’t see their results drop as a result of Clark’s announcement. The big change came from previously undecided Dems throwing their support to Clark in large numbers.
Perhaps just as important, if not more so, were hypothetical match-ups with the Dems against Bush in the Newsweek poll.
When all registered voters (not just Dems and Dem-leaning Independents) were asked who they would vote for in the presidential election, Bush led each of the top Dem candidates — some more than others.
Howard Dean, by far, did the worst, continuing to reinforce fears that he would lack the support needed to win in the general election. In their head-to-head match-up, 52% supported Bush, 38% backed Dean — a 14-point gap.
John Kerry fared much better. 48% chose Bush, while 43% supported Kerry — a 5-point gap.
Wesley Clark, meanwhile, fared the best of the Dem candidates overall, with 47% backing Bush and 43% siding with Clark — a 4-point gap.
Interestingly enough, Clark’s support in the Newsweek poll demonstrated why so many party officials believe he can and will be a strong national candidate. Self-identified Independents backed Clark over Bush 44% to 42%, and Clark was even ahead of Bush among voters in the South, 47% to 45%.
A Dem with support over Bush in the South? Do my eyes deceive me? Let’s not forget that Al Gore didn’t win a single state (including his home state of Tennessee) in the South in 2000. From Virginia to Texas, Bush won them all. If Dems can nominate a candidate who can compete in (and even win a few) Southern states, Bush loses next year. It’s as simple as that.
And speaking of our fearless leader, the same Newsweek poll showed that Bush’s approval rating has fallen to 51%, the second-lowest point of his presidency and the lowest point in the post-9/11 era. Just as importantly, Bush’s approval for his handling of Iraq has dropped to 46%, the first time in his presidency it has fallen below 50%, while 57% disapprove of how Bush is handling the economy.