Monday’s political round-up

March 20, 2006

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* A Quinnipiac poll released this morning shows Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) leading State Sen. Thomas Kean (R-N.J.) by four points in this year’s Senate campaign, 40% to 36%. The pollsters noted that more than one-fourth of Kean’s support is due to affinity for his father — a number some see as likely decrease as the campaign continues.

* Speaking of New Jersey, there are rumors that Kean may face a primary challenge this year, as a result of an intra-party spat. Kean has so far declined to say whether he’ll align himself with the conservative wing of the Bergen County Republican Party, prompting John P. Ginty, a former Ridgewood Republican Club President, to say that he may seek the GOP Senate nomination if Kean decides not to run on the organization line in Bergen. “I am personally prepared to launch such a challenge over the next several days if the Bergen Republican line’s U.S. Senate nomination remains unfilled,” Ginty, a banker who spent five years as a Navy submarine officer, told PoliticsNJ.com Thursday in an e-mail. Ginty added, ” In a one-on-one contest, any conservative Senate candidate with a pulse can beat the liberal Kean in this June’s primary.”

* In Washington state, Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) continues to enjoy a healthy lead over her GOP rival, businessman Mike McGavick (R) in a Rasmussen poll released today, 49% to 36%. Rasmussen added, “The rolling average of our last three polls shows Cantwell with a 50% to 36% lead.”

* New York Senate candidate KT McFarland’s voting record continues to haunt her. In addition to failing to vote in six of the past 14 general elections, the New York Post noted today that she didn’t even vote in the 1984 presidential election — despite working for Reagan at the time.

* In retirement news, Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R-N.Y.) announced late on Friday that he will not seek a 13th term this fall. Dems are optimistic that Boehlert’s Upstate New York district will be a key pick-up opportunity in November. Democratic activists expect Michael Arcuri, the Oneida County district attorney since 1993, to win the Sept. 12 primary. Republicans are looking to five-term state Sen. Raymond A. Meier, 53, to be their nominee. In related news, Rep. Martin Sabo (D-Minn.) will retire this year after 28 years in Congress. Sabo’s 5th Congressional District is considered a Democratic stronghold, and potential candidates include professor Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, state Rep. Keith Ellison, Minneapolis City Council Member Gary Schiff, and Mike Erlandson, Sabo’s chief of staff.

* And in South Dakota, Gov. Mike Rounds (R) finally has a Dem challenger this year. Attorney Ron Volesky (D) was expected to be the Dem gubernatorial nominee, but he dropped out of the race unexpectedly several weeks ago after poor fundraising. Jack Billion announced late last week that he will seek the party’s nomination. The retired doctor is the current chairman of the Minnehaha County Democrats. Billion was in the state House of Representatives from 1993 to 1996.

The bad news is that we’re probably not winning Boehlert’s seat. The good news is that Ray Meier, like the departing Boehlert, seems to be about as good as it gets amongst Republicans–strong on the environment, thoughtful and relatively progressive on social issues. Honestly, if he were 20 years younger he’d be a Democrat; they no longer mint Republicans like that. I wouldn’t be absolutely shocked to see him switch if we retake a majority, though maybe it wouldn’t happen for a couple years.

  • Democratic activists in the district don’t think that Arcuri will win. Rahm Emanuel and the DCCC are telling all the political blogs and reports that Democratic activists in the 24th District think so.

    Please don’t take that hype at face value. The story is more complex than that.

    There are two other strong Democrats running in the District – Les Roberts, who has international fame as the lead researcher on the Lancet study that found over 100,000 deaths likely as a result of the American invasion of Iraq. Les Roberts had himself smuggled into Iraq to conduct the study -do a Google search on him, and you’ll find a very compelling story to write about for one of your blog entries. Les Roberts has been having successful fundraisers all around the country.

    Then there’s Bruce Tytler, who is former mayor of Cortland, and has a strong following in that city.

    Michael Arcuri is having some problems on the issue of abortion. Arcuri is refusing to answer questions about his stand on abortion, and deleted a discussion board on his web site when voters started asking questions about this issue. People are starting to ask if Arcuri is Pro-Life. That story would be another good one for the Carpetbagger to cover.

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