Despite all the excitement surrounding the Plame Game, we don’t want to overlook the race to determine who’s going to beat Bush next year. With this in mind, I’m doing what I always do on the first of the month — returning to my completely subjective rankings for the Democrats running for president. As always, these rankings are my impression on where the candidates stand as of today, though not necessarily where I think they’ll end up a year from now nor where I’d prefer to see them.
1. Howard Dean (last month: 1) — I’m still not happy about this, but Dean’s still the frontrunner. His fundraising in Q3 was not only incredible, it’s the most any Democrat has every collected in any quarter ever. Moreover, he’s still leading in Iowa and New Hampshire, though his national polling has dropped a bit. I’d argue, however, that some of the hits he took in September — on Medicare, Israel, and his position on NAFTA, for example — may cause lasting problems for his campaign. Time will tell.
2. Wesley Clark (last month: not ranked) — It’s tempting to put the General in the top slot (where I’d like him to be), but not quite yet. There were a couple of early stumbles coming out of the blocks, but he shrugged them off nicely. He’s had a few punches thrown his way — from Dean and Lieberman on partisanship, Kerry on experience, and Edwards on civil liberties — but I think he’s weathering the attacks just fine. Fundraising was excellent after just two weeks in the campaign and the NY debate won him positive reviews. Perhaps most importantly, Clark was on Capitol Hill yesterday winning over the hearts of several dozen House Democrats from across the country. This could pay huge dividends down the line.
3. John Kerry (last month: 2) — Even Big John is starting to show signs of life again. Q3 fundraising wasn’t as strong as he’d like, but September was a good month for Kerry. He won key endorsements from Dianne Feinstein, Jeanne Shaheen, and Gary Hart, and his debate performances were generally well received. The International Association of Fire Fighters’ endorsement should help a lot as well.
4. John Edwards (last month: 4) — Don’t look now, but things are starting to pick up for Edwards, albeit just a little. His support in Iowa is starting to trend upwards for the first time in months, and polls also show him leading in South Carolina, clearly his make-or-break state. If he can continue to do well in the South, his campaign strategy may actually begin to pay off. He also gets bonus points from me for appearing on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, which I love. It’s a shame his announcement speech was overshadowed by Clark and a pesky hurricane, but what can you do. At least Molly Ivins said something nice about him this week. (Wouldn’t Edwards make a good VP for Clark? Just wondering.)
5. Dick Gephardt (last month: 3) — Things aren’t going well for Dick. For reasons that elude me, he was the biggest loser in the national polls once Clark got in the race, and now he’s in single digits. He’s placed all his eggs in Iowa’s basket, and he’s still trailing Dean. Worse, he’s been after the AFL-CIO’s endorsement for a year now but the union just announced a delay in its announcement. Not a good sign. On the plus side, he survived this month’s appearance on Meet the Press.
6. Joe Lieberman (last month: 6) — I’m glad Lieberman was able to go an entire Dem debate without getting booed, but he’ll need actual support sometime in the near future if he plans to remain a viable candidate. I keep wanting to ask the Lieberman campaign which primary they expect to compete in. Iowa? No, he’s trailing badly. New Hampshire? No, he’ll be lucky to come in fourth. South Carolina? Had potential, but his support dropped in September from 14% to 7%. Better to drop out now, endorse Clark or Kerry (because Lieberman hates Dean), and save face.
7. Bob Graham (last month: 7) — No money. No poll support. No reason to stick around.
8. Dennis Kucinich (last month: 5) — I gave Kucinich credit last month for building a steady, small base of support and articulating a clear reason why he’s running for president. Now, I’m just finding him more annoying than quixotic.
9. Carol Mosley Braun (last month: 8) — Did you hear about her formal announcement speech on Sept. 22? Neither did I. On the plus side, the Braun campaign recently announced that it will be launching a college tour this fall in which Braun will visit historically African-American and women’s colleges. The tour is intended to focus on voter registration, which is a worthwhile goal, even if the voters Braun registers won’t be voting for her.
10. Al Sharpton (last month: 9) — Sharpton is obviously the sharpest speaker of the Dem field, as evidenced by his sterling debate performances, but clever soundbites do not a candidate make. I was prepared to bump Sharpton up to the number 9 slot, but then I saw that his top staffers have resigned. Not usually a sign of a healthy campaign.