Thursday’s political round-up

April 6, 2006

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* If you’ve ever wondered why state Sen. [tag]Tom Kean[/tag] Jr. (R) continues to fare well in statewide polls for this year’s Senate race in New Jersey, pollsters at the Rutgers University-Eagleton Center for Public Information explain the problem: a lot of voters think he’s his [tag]father[/tag]. Among the participants in this week’s poll, 13% of New Jersey residents believed Kean Jr. was governor (he wasn’t; his father was), and 11% believed Kean Jr. was on the 9/11 Commission (again, that was Sr. not Jr.).

* A polling consultant for the Democratic National Committee tested responses from nearly 500 African-American voters in Maryland found a disturbing trend: they’re open to supporting Senate candidate [tag]Michael Steele[/tag] (R), who is also African American. The WaPo, which obtained the polling report this week, explained that the 37-page report says a sizable segment of likely black voters — as much as 44% — would readily abandon their historic Democratic allegiances after hearing Steele’s messaging.

* In Colorado, a new Rasmussen poll shows the gubernatorial race getting considerably closer of late. According to the latest data, former Denver District Attorney [tag]Bill Ritter[/tag]’s (D) lead is slipping and he now leads Rep. [tag]Bob Beauprez[/tag] (R) by the slimmest of margins, 41% to 40%. Ritter’s lead over former University of Denver President Marc Holtzman (R) is slightly better, 41% to 36%.

* A Democratic poll in Indiana’s closely-watched 9th congressional district offered the party some encouraging numbers. According to the poll, former Rep. [tag]Baron Hill[/tag] (D) leads incumbent Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) by 10 points, 48% to 38%. The race will be a rematch of one of 2004’s closest congressional races.

* Rep. [tag]Ernest Istook[/tag] (R) appears to be a shoo-in for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in Oklahoma this year. A poll conducted by Wilson Research Strategies showed Istook with 57% support, nearly six times his next closest competitor, former state Energy Secretary Bob Sullivan (R). The winner will face Gov. [tag]Brad Henry[/tag] (D), who leads all of his GOP rivals in recent polls.

* And in Tennessee, Republican efforts to recruit a challenger for Gov. [tag]Phil Bredesen[/tag] (D) have gone very poorly, but yesterday, a candidate finally through his hat into the ring. State Sen. [tag]Jim Bryson[/tag] (R) announced yesterday that he is running for governor, though most political observers don’t expect him to fare well against the popular and well-funded incumbent. (via Taegan Goddard)

Istook is such a moron — and he spent months fumbling around returning Abramoff-linked money and trying to explain trips with him to “American Idol” concerts. Henry is fairly colorless and middle of the road, but that may be the only way a Dem can win statewide in Oklahoma any more — and he did deliver on his biggest promise: getting the state a lottery to help fund education. My only concern: He won the first time because a third-party candidate stole a lot of votes from Republican Steve Largent. I think Henry is good to make it, but it’s early and the campaign hasn’t even remotely begun.

  • As a resident of the 9th, what cheeses me off is the way the Dems aren’t even considering the primary. We have a real progressive Dem – her name is Gretchen Clearwater – running against the pro-war voting Baron Hill in the primary. Good luck finding her name of the democratic web site.

  • Sounds to me like a no-brainer (unless the Dems have hired Gore’s or Kerry’s campaign staff): New Jersey needs a campaign ad blitz pointing out that Kean Jr. is NOT Kean Sr. Perhaps a re-enactment of an old Lloyd Bentzen debate retort: “I knew Tom Kean Sr., and you’re no Tom Kean Sr.”

  • Ed, you beat me to it. Nothing like reading the post I wanted to write, writ larger.

    Is it so hard to figure this stuff out? I realize we’re on the “outside” and there’s always more to it, but come on: fire whatever hack/loser advisors you have letting you lose to a guy who isn’t even running. Problem is, the “advisors” are usually the ones pulling Dems into a race, so they kinda have to stay. We seriously need a farm system to crank out viablle, exciting candidates. Darn shame.

  • Regarding Steele: what is his message? I read the article but could not find any indication of what it was. Likely if he’s that popular with blacks it’s because his message is pretty similar to other Dems on the issues that blacks care about. I’d like to see how he differs.

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