Bob Graham made it official last night, appearing on Larry King Live to announce he will no longer be a presidential candidate.
“I have made the judgment I cannot be elected,” Graham said.
As I’ve said before, I think the entire Graham campaign has been quite a shame. He’s a serious, intelligent lawmaker with an impressive record of public service. Graham is not, however, a good campaigner. As became painfully clear over the last six months, Graham lacked strength in public speaking, fundraising, and grassroots organizing.
His departure raises two questions: what will this mean for the Senate race in Florida and who benefits most of the remaining Dem presidential candidates?
Graham may head home and run for re-election. His third term expires next year, and should he decide to run again, Graham stands a good chance of winning. (Indeed, he’s never lost a race in Florida in a political career that spans nearly four decades.) As of last night, Graham said he had not yet decided what he would do next year.
It’s hard to say how much Graham’s absence will mean in the presidential race because, with all due respect to the Senator, his base of support was quite small. Even if one candidate picked up all of Graham’s supporters, we’re really only talking about a couple of percentage points.
That being said, a few candidates are in a position to enjoy some strategic benefits. Howard Dean, for example, can go back to saying that he’s the only governor in the race, and reminding audiences that four of the last five presidents were governors. Joseph Lieberman was competing with Graham for support in Florida’s Jewish community. John Edwards and Wesley Clark are now the only Southerners in the race.
Clark in particular plans to capitalize on Graham’s absence. Though Graham’s campaign never generated the support it needed, it did have some top-level staffers on board. Clark has already taken steps to invite Jamal Simmons, Graham’s top campaign spokesman, to join his campaign, and it’s likely Clark will extend similar invitations to Graham consultants like Dave “Mudcat” Saunders and Steve Jarding.
Oddly enough, Clark is really the only candidate who can easily hire top Graham staffers. All the other candidates have solidified staff rosters over recent months. Since Clark’s campaign is only a few weeks old, several key positions remain available.
Graham, meanwhile, said he is not prepared to endorse any of his rivals quite yet. I suspect he’ll wait until there’s a frontrunner and then drop less-than-subtle hints that he’d love to join his or her ticket.