How low can he go — redux

April 25, 2006

There’s no real point in highlighting every new [tag]poll[/tag] that’s released showing [tag]Bush[/tag]’s awful [tag]approval ratings[/tag] — his unpopularity has more or less reached dog-bites-man territory — so I’ll make everyone a deal: I’ll only mention new national polls about the president when a) the results show a new all-time low; or b) when the internals show something particularly unusual.

The latest [tag]CNN[/tag] poll falls into the prior.

President Bush’s approval ratings have sunk to a personal low, with only a third of Americans saying they approve of the way he is handling his job, a national poll released Monday said.

In the telephone poll of 1,012 adult Americans carried out Friday through Sunday by Opinion Research Corporation for CNN, [tag]32[/tag] percent of respondents said they approve of Bush’s performance, 60 percent said they [tag]disapprove[/tag] and 8 percent said they do not know.

I could be wrong, but 32% seems like a floor that will be hard to break through. The president has lost just about everyone he’s going to lose; these 32% would probably back Bush if he personally came to their home and punched them in the face. (“Well, I’m sure he had a perfectly good reason…”)

On a related note, I was going through some conservative blogs yesterday for my other gig when I came across an interesting perspective on Bush’s plummeting support from Mark Noonan at Blogs for Bush.

The left would love it if their cooked-polls would dispirit all of us – but they don’t. They do get after our weak sisters in the Congressional GOP – plus the odd conservative pundit who lacks courage – but most of us don’t give a hoot for polls showing President Bush’s approval rating down. Part of this is because we know the polls are bogus – invariably they heavily over-sample Democratic respondents – but even if the polls were rock-solid, we still wouldn’t run up the white flag.

Now, I don’t mean to pick on Mark, but I have to wonder if this a common perspective among Bush supporters. All of these polls, which to varying degrees show the same results, are “cooked” and “bogus”? All the major dailies and television networks — even Fox News — all conduct unreliable research that fails to accurately reflect public opinion? Really?

There’s no real point in highlighting every new poll that’s released showing Bush’s awful approval ratings

Fun?

The president has lost just about everyone he’s going to lose;

Never say never.

  • “all conduct unreliable research that fails to accurately reflect public opinion? Really?” – CB

    If only I had $1 for everytime I heard someone at work state, “Statistics can be made to show anything you want them to.” in reference to data that didn’t fit their views.

    So yes, I suspect that for the most part Bush supporters honestly believe that ALL the polls that don’t show Bush with overwhelming support are “cooked” and “bogus”. I mean they have to be, don’t they?

    If I support Bush and the people I choose to associate with support Bush, then nearly 100% of the people I talk to regularly support Bush, so anecdotal evidence demonstrates that Bush’s support is obviously much closer to 100% than 30%.

  • Let’s give Mark credit for keeping his knuckles off the pavement long enough to type such nonsense. Does he really think putting his fingers in his ears and chanting neenerneenerneener is a persuasive argument?
    I don’t mean to be so mean spirited towards him, but he’s eliminated everything but ridicule.

  • I do enjoy a daily dose of low polling by the Regal Moron — except that it does depress me some when I reflect on how many snaggle-toothed knuckle-draggers are out there, buttressed by rigged voting machines and an obscene amount of corporate wealth.

  • It’s called “cognitive dissonance.”

    The people simply cannot allow themselves to believe that the man they’ve supported, defended, and followed is wrong on … well, anything. If they do, then their world view is shattered and the intellectual (assuming it applies) and emotional fallout could be devastating.

    It’s quite the unique condition, actually.

    And, no, I’m not a psychologist. I just play one on the Internet.

  • “…these 32% would probably back Bush if he personally came to their home and punched them in the face.”

    I wonder how many of the GOP-nis respondents just say they approve even though they really do not. I bet there is a good number of them doing so, so that the poll does not drop into the 20s.

  • Let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that all the polls are biased and have 15% more Democrats in their samples than they should have. That would explain, actually it would more than explain, why ‘publicans seem to do better at the ballot box than in the polls.

    OK, so all pollsters from Gallup to Fox are biased.

    Who cares!

    The important point is how does this poll differ in bias from previous polls.

    If Bush’s numbers are down 10% in the last few months then there are only two easy ways to explain it. First is that 10% of the people who used to like Bush no longer do. The second is that the polls are more biased now than they were a few months ago. Of course, since almost all polls show similar declines then you must have all the pollsters working together.

  • Oh, c’mon, it’s a legitimate argument. After all, if Diebold was in charge of these polls, Bush would be at 80-90% approval ratings!

  • Part of this is because we know the polls are bogus – invariably they heavily over-sample Democratic respondents…

    Actually, they’re likely biased the other way. Poor, urban denizens are less likely to volunteer time to take polls. I remember reading somewhere that race also tends to be a determining factor in who answers polls, and minorities tend not to take them. Also, polls tend to be conducted via phone, so people without phones (or cell phones only) will not get polled.

    Now, I’ve not got the statistics to back up the assumption that those groups tend to be more Democratic, but I’m sure it exists somewhere.

    Also, when you’re one of a small percentage of people who do support something, you’re more likely to vehemently support it. So the 32% who still support Bush are more likely to be the squeeky wheels and would volunteer to take the poll.

    Something about volunteer error is echoing in the back of my mind from Psych class.

  • I’m expecting a rise in his popularity (followed by a spike in my bile production) if the oil companies “respond” to his requests to reduce the cost. And how about his directive to relax the environmental constraints on gasoline production so the companies can increase production? Bet that becomes permanent.

  • “I could be wrong, but 32% seems like a floor that will be hard to break through.” – CB

    Let him keep pushing immigration and calling illegals “People too” and you’ll see it go down.

    “…but most of us don’t give a hoot for polls showing President Bush’s approval rating down.” – Mark Noonan

    Actually, this is true because they believe they only need 26% to run this country. That is, they only need a majority of the caucus of the majority party, because party discipline is so harsh that they always whip the Republicanite whimps to vote how they want. Now that DeLay is on the way out, that may really change. But as you can see, there is not a lot coming out of Congress these days.

  • I’ve had this discussion before with conservatives who dismiss poll results. Their viewpoints might generally be summarized as the “math is hard” argument.

  • The Rasmussen Reports daily poll is a reliably “pro-Bush” and the worst that it has ever been for Bush’s approval rating was 39%. Rasmussen is usually 5 to 10 points higher than any other survey. Since the first of April, Rasmussen’s highest number for Bush was 45%. I would contend that when Rasmussen has Bush dwelling in the mid-thirties, Bush will be breaking downward to the 30% level in several other polls. If there is one poll that Mark Noonan should watch, it should be the one that is favorable to Bush–Rasmussen

    Personally, when Bush’s disapproval number hits the high sixities on the Rasmussen survey, I think that you will begin to see the politicos float the word “resignation” (for the good of the party, of course).

    PS — I have no idea where Bush’s rock-bottom is.

  • A couple of years ago, I was called by a GOP pollster who asked me how GW was doing. I said he was a terrible president and they hung up on me. The fact FOX comes out with 32 percent tells me the real number is probably closer to 20.

  • Having worked in government, I’ve seen that it’s not just the number of people that oppose you, but the number of opposers that will work against you at all costs. These are the folks that not only say no, but hell no and over their dead bodies.

    I’d like to see polling data that will determine what number of people opposed to Bush are now feeling energized enough in their opposition to get off the couch and make something happen in November. I’d like to see the percentage of folks that are now mad as hell and not going to take it anymore.

  • Awwww, c’mon, CB, we live for those polls out here. On a lot of days they’re the only good news we get

    More polls!! More polls, I say!!! 🙂

  • As the well of conservative “ideas” runs dry, expect to hear more statements such as this one (the polls are biased!). That’s one of the articles of faith. Another is that “the press is out to get Bush.” Or that “the press is propping up” some administration critic.

    Anything that lets ’em keep denying reality. Expect to see it more and more.

  • Promote the following one-question poll: “If George W. Bush acts like the AntiChrist, and talks like the AntiChrist, and does unto others as the AntiChrist would do unto others…then what, in your opinion, is George W. Bush?” I look into my crystal ball (okay, so it’s my kid’s beachball), and I see many-many-many, tens-of-thousands of evangelicals and fundamentalists running away from this President as if he were a plague of Biblical proportions.

    I smell “the Twenties.”

    Point is, if the pundits want to get serious about hammering this President into his “rock-bottom,” then they need to “bad-light” Kid George in a way that relates to everyone’s thinking. A tweak here, a nudge there, and it’s all downhere from that moment on. And, I’ll agree with MG; if FOX says 32, then it’s got to be 20-something….

  • Just to follow on Mark Noonan’s “the polls are bogus” statement. I took a quick tour through freeperville after the Fox poll came out and a majority of the comments there followed along the same resoning. These are hard core cultists who haven’t come to grips with the fact that their hero is disintegrating before their very eyes.

    I think that I’m somewhat more optimistic than the rest of you on what the floor for Bush’s popularity is. If we stay on the current trajectory and without any major events I’m guessing the floor might go to 25% by year’s end. That’s less than 1% per month, but the number of people who think the country is on the wrong track seems to be the key here. And the blame for that falls squarely on Bush’s shoulders.

  • But with gas prices and all these generals, etc., jumping on recently, if that continues to snowball, we could actually hear serious impeachment talk.

  • “…we could actually hear serious impeachment talk.” – Catherine

    Cheney first!

    Not possible until after November.

    Only if we have the balls to call Rove on his lies and slanders.

    And only if Rohm and Chuck get enough candidates to run against the Republicanites.

    This is the year guys (Rohm and Chuck), the redistricting from the Census is six years old and the change of demographics is in our favor. Bush and Cheney are dead weights on their party’s neck and there are corrupt Republican congressmen everywhere. Challenge them early and more of them will retire rather than face the electorate.

  • oooo… there’s lots more bad news to be wrung out of the nation, starting with $3+ gas prices this summer. once he cracks 30% a lot of former die hards will peel off in overdue disgust. i say the bottom is 25%.

  • Some mornings I rouse myself to listen to C-Span’s “Washington Journal” (it comes on at 4:00 AM out here on the Left Coast). This morning the opening query to the masses was something like “Do you support the crack down on CIA leakers?” One only need listen for a short period of time to hear from the loud and proud 32%. It is quite clear that nothing is going to penetrate the mental armor with which they cover themselves. Every RNC talking point comes burbling out. These folks want Bush on “that wall.” They NEED Bush “on that wall.” They do not want to know the gory details of the things that Bush “must” do, so long as he is takin’ care of business. The Bill of Rights is not a suicide pact, but a vote for Bush is essentially a coronation. They believe in a government of, by, and for Bush. They put him in there to take care of things. BUT, the damned liberals, the democrats, the traitors in the media keeping messing up a good thing. Those damn Lefties want to give away ‘merica to the “enemies.” It is not a far leap for them to conclude that the pollsters are out to sandbag their beloved Bushie. The Bush Haters (yes, I am one) are manipulating everything. And BTW, WHY hasn’t Sandy Berger been punished for stealing classified information? Enquiring minds in Bushland really want to know!

  • I wonder how the rightists will respond if/when the elections go against them this fall (it’s a real possibility folks – and you can’t jinx it by talking about it, honest).

    First, of course, that they’re rigged; second, that voters rejected Congress because Congress wouldn’t do what Dear Leader wanted; third, and loudest, that it’s the media’s fault. Then will come the cataleptic fit.

    It will be sweet, sweet to see.

  • I also agree with MG. If FOX has him at 32, he’s in the twenties, and I think his bottom is 19. Everyone hates him (even my fundamentalist, Republican in-laws) because he has screwed everything up.

  • Well, of course, BushCo’s pals have been robbing us blind for what, five years, so it is now time for Shrub to Look Busy, and sadly, most of us will be taken in and will have forgotten by election time, that his Republican pals in Congress did nothing from the outset.

    Let us hope thatcome elction time, the Dems show simple charts — gas price when Clinton was elected — average throughout — highest price during term and price at departure. Then ditto for this gang of charlatans!

  • Yes, all of the polling organizations across the country who have been reporting Bush’s popularity at 40+% for all this time are now all conspiring against him.

    It must be awfully tiring to be a right-winger, so difficult to devote so much time bending and twisting the facts. I know some of these folks are pretty limited in the logic department but haven’t they noticed that a whole stream of current events and White House actions jive with such sinking numbers? It’s not as though these numbers are out of the blue, the Bush Administration has had misstep after misstep. You’d think they’d at least be saying that he’ll come back, dismiss that the polls reflect a permanent shift. Their outright denial in the face of facts they don’t like is very telling…

    Just an aside, when I discussed the 33% FoxNews poll with a reporter friend of mine he said “It’s Fox, so shave off another 5%.”

  • not to pick on anyone, but actions ‘jibe’, not ‘jive’, with numbers; that is – ‘are related to’, not ‘fool with’.

    sorry… pet peeve.

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