Tuesday’s political round-up

May 2, 2006

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Sen. [tag]Joe Lieberman[/tag] (D-Conn.) has been very nervous about his political future in light of [tag]Ned Lamont[/tag]’s primary challenge, but a new Quinnipiac poll shows Lieberman in fairly good shape. Despite the fact that 61% of Connecticut voters believe going to war in Iraq was a mistake, Lieberman still enjoys a sizable lead over Lamont, 65% to 19%.

* In Montana, a new poll conducted by Sen. [tag]Conrad Burns[/tag]’ (R) primary opponent, [tag]Bob Keenan[/tag], shows Burns trailing both of his Dem competitors. What’s more, Keenan’s poll showed only 29% of Montanans agreeing that Burns deserves another term in the Senate, while 60% believe it’s time to give someone else a chance.

* Arizona Gov. [tag]Janet Napolitano[/tag] (D) continues to look practically unbeatable in her re-election effort, according to the latest Rasmussen poll. Napolitano leads Don Goldwater (R) 53% to 32%, Len Munsil (R) 55% to 28%, and Jan Florez (R) 58% to 22%.

* Former football player [tag]Lynn Swann[/tag] (R) has enjoyed a charmed political life of late — he recently wrapped up the GOP nomination for governor in Pennsylvania — but his campaign has apparently stumbled a bit of late. As Alec Oveis noted, Swann’s campaign “has not been receiving a lot of respect – or money – from his Republican Party.” Through March, Swann raised about $2 million for his campaign — about one-eighth of Gov. Ed Rendell’s campaign coffers.

* A statewide poll in Ohio conducted by the Cleveland Plain Dealer showed incumbent Sen. [tag]Mike DeWine[/tag] (R) still ahead of Rep. [tag]Sherrod Brown[/tag] (D), 47% to 36%. For Dems, the news was not all bad — DeWine is still below the 50% threshold, and Brown has not yet boosted his statewide name recognition.

* Today is Primary Day in several states, including a handful of top-tier races in Ohio, North Carolina, and Indiana. Most eyes will, however, be on Ohio, where both parties will host gubernatorial primaries and some key House primaries. The office of Ohio’s Secretary of State will publish vote totals this evening here.

Does the Quinnipiac poll on the Lieberman / Lamont race sample only Democrats or does it sample all voters? In a closed Democratic primary (CT rules?), would Lamont be competitive or not?

  • The Senate race in Ohio is going to be a toss-up. A lot of people don’t like Dewine—but there’s still a lot of anger aimed at Brown over the Hackett debacle People remember what Brown did—bailed from the race, and then came back in after Hackett started building a good head of steam. Sherrod’s thinking seems to have been, “If this guy (Hackett) can beat Blackwell, then “I” can beat Blackwell.” So a lot of votes that Brown gets won’t be pro-Brown; they’ll be anti-Blackwell.

    And that’s if Blackwell gets the nod. If Petro dismembers Blackwell today, then our next Governor here in the Buckeye State will most likely be another Republikanner….

  • Does the Quinnipiac poll on the Lieberman / Lamont race sample only Democrats or does it sample all voters?

    For the poll result I mentioned, the respondents were limited to those who identified themselves as Dems.

  • I share Steve’s misgivings about Brown. If he blows it then a lot of people are going to wish they’d been more supportive of Hackett when it counted, and the H-man will be laughing his keister off. As well he should, imho.

  • Please excuse the change-of-subject that looks like a synaptic mis-fire. What I was looking at was the across-the-board mudslinging that Blackwell’s become famous for. He paints with a brush as broad as an iceberg, and it seems to have a mesmerizing effect on the “party faithful” and a good number of the undecided/independent vote. A Hackett senatorial effort would have been pretty much immune to this; however, the anti-Brown sentiment in this state can pretty much galvanize (thus justify) everything that Blackwell can throw agains his Dem opponent for the governorship.

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